Winter attacks on the grid

As winter arrives, the report frames the Putin Ukraine war in blunt terms: Putin seeks to hammer Ukrainians, their power grid and their water supplies. Renewed diplomatic efforts are under way to end the fighting, but a negotiated settlement is seen as unlikely.

Why a settlement remains unlikely

According to the report, several obstacles stand in the way of any deal:

• •Russia's irreconcilable territorial demands
• •Competing visions of European security
• •An increasingly unpredictable and pro-Moscow American approach to mediation

The intractable Donbas dispute

Putin is determined to claim control over the entirety of the Donbas region, while Ukraine refuses to surrender territory it continues to hold.

Mark Galeotti, Executive Director of Mayak Intelligence and Honorary Professor at University College London's School of Slavonic and East European Studies, calls the question intractable. "That Donbas question is, for me, an intractable one," he observes, seeing neither side willing to cede the territory needed for a breakthrough.

Russian negotiating strategy and Trump's mediation

Galeotti cautions against reading harsh Russian rhetoric as a refusal to talk. "The Russian approach is always to sound incredibly bullish and then make any concessions at the very last minute," he explains.

On the American side, he says the usual diplomatic sequence has been reversed, with declarations coming before negotiations. "Trump makes grand declarations and various people try desperately to make it happen."

Diplomatic efforts continue, but the report sees no negotiated settlement in prospect while the Donbas question stays unresolved.