• Analysis
US, Russia and Ukraine Trilateral Talks Put Security Guarantees Before Territory
US-led trilateral talks between American, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators open on Tuesday in Abu Dhabi with Ukraine security guarantees at the centre of the agenda. A US official said any territorial agreement would probably come only at the end of negotiations, after other items are settled.
Security guarantees top the agenda
When the us russia ukraine trilateral talks open on Tuesday in Abu Dhabi, the order of the agenda matters as much as what is on it. A US official said security guarantees for Ukraine, including potential Nato-style article 5 defence, would be a central topic for the discussions.
According to the same official, any territorial agreement would probably come at the end of negotiations, after other items - including a postwar security architecture - had been agreed. That sequencing keeps the hardest question, land, off the table until the framework meant to prevent a renewed war is in place.
How far apart the two sides stand
The gap between the parties remains wide. Ukraine wants Russia pushed back to the original border between the two countries, while Vladimir Putin wants all of eastern Ukraine's Donbas region.
- •Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his nightly video address on Monday that Ukrainian battlefield successes were strengthening Kyiv's negotiating position, saying Ukrainian forces are "currently genuinely strengthening Ukraine's negotiating position".
- •Donald Trump told reporters in Washington on Monday that the US was seeing a "very strong inclination" towards ending Russia's war, and that both sides were "tired of fighting".
- •The Abu Dhabi sessions are the first substantive talks since February aimed at ending a war that has raged for more than four-and-a-half years.
Trump has previously said Ukraine would likely be expected to give up territory in a final deal, which would end with a "little bit different shape".
Ukraine's stated priorities
The Ukrainian delegation is led by foreign intelligence chief Rustem Umerov, who will separately brief European allies on progress. In a social media post before the sessions, Umerov set out what Kyiv is asking for:
Our key priorities are ending the fighting, securing reliable postwar security guarantees, ensuring Ukraine's economic recovery and development
Umerov listed those four items - ending the fighting, postwar security guarantees, Ukraine's economic recovery and humanitarian steps - as the delegation's agenda for the abu dhabi peace talks.
Momentum before the talks
US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Donald Trump's son-in-law, lead the American delegation. On Tuesday morning, ahead of the trilateral sessions, the two met Ukrainian and European officials in Abu Dhabi.
Witkoff said on X that the meeting coordinated efforts to end the war and "establish the conditions for a durable peace", with support for "robust security guarantees". He wrote that participants emphasised any future arrangements must respect sovereignty, territorial integrity and independent decision-making, and provide credible security guarantees for Ukraine. He added that officials from Europe, the US and Ukraine shared objectives and a commitment to "Euro-Atlantic security".
Secretary of state Marco Rubio claimed on Monday that there had been "some advances made in what that architecture should look" like - though the content of the proposals on the table is not yet clear.
Where the sequencing leaves the talks
The structure now in place puts ukraine security guarantees first and territory last. European officials, including from France, Germany and the European Commission, will not directly take part in negotiations, at Russia's insistence - a constraint that has kept allied capitals watching from outside while the postwar security architecture is drafted.
The talks are scheduled to run for two days. Whether the sequence holds - guarantees agreed before any line on a map is drawn - will only become clear once the two delegations sit down in Abu Dhabi.
