• Analysis
China rules out hosting Cop33 climate summit in 2028
China has decided not to host the Cop33 UN climate summit, scheduled for 6 to 17 November 2028, after months of deliberations on China Cop33 hosting, leaving other Asian countries to bid under UNFCCC rules that give the region the turn.
China will not host the Cop33 UN climate summit, ruling itself out of China Cop33 hosting after months of deliberations and opening the way for other Asian countries to step forward, according to the report.
Why 2028 belongs to Asia
Under the rules of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, an Asian country should host in 2028, so China was the natural candidate for the region's turn.
The stakes are high. The summit will include the global stocktake, a mechanism under the 2015 Paris agreement that examines countries' progress on cutting emissions. That process is tied to the goal of limiting warming to 1.5C, a limit experts say is now certain to be surpassed, though countries should try to minimise the temperature overshoot.
- •Cop33 falls on 6 to 17 November 2028.
- •UNFCCC rules give Asia the host role for 2028.
- •The global stocktake will review progress against the Paris agreement's emissions goals.
- •The 1.5C limit is expected to be exceeded, with experts urging countries to limit the overshoot.
Washington's shadow over the decision
Several experts suggested that the US electoral cycle was likely to have been a factor in China's decision; the next US presidential election falls on 7 November 2028, right in the middle of the summit. After strong Democratic showings in recent midterms, where voter concern over the climate crisis was thought to be a factor, Democrats hope to elect a climate-friendly president in 2028. Even if they succeed, Trump will still be in office until the following January.
Trump rejects climate science, withdrew the US from the Paris agreement, and is also withdrawing from its parent treaty, the 1992 UNFCCC. That marks a break from the cooperation seen under presidents Joe Biden and Barack Obama, when the US and China set joint targets on reducing methane and developing clean technology.
US figures react
Al Gore, the former US vice-president, was disappointed by the decision and said he would have supported China hosting the summit. John Kerry, the former US secretary of state, told the Guardian that China was leaving the rest of the world behind in forging and using low-carbon technologies. Gareth Redmond-King, international lead at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, said it would be significant for China to host a Cop.
"It would undoubtedly be significant for the world's biggest emitter and second-biggest economy to host a climate Cop."
According to Redmond-King, China is leading the world on investment, manufacture and deployment of clean energy tech, and its emissions have started to tick down.
Who could host instead
China's domestic record made it a plausible host: renewable energy generation capacity has outstripped coal, and greenhouse gas emissions appear to have declined slightly this year. Electric vehicles made up nearly two-thirds of sales last month, and clean energy industries drove more than 90% of investment growth last year.
Other countries are now mulling a bid:
- •Uzbekistan
- •South Korea
- •Indonesia
- •Thailand
India considered offering to host Cop33 for several months earlier this year but also decided against it, even as its coal use increases alongside renewable targets it is exceeding.
No host decision is likely at this year's Cop31 in Turkey, with the Turkish and Australian governments jointly presiding over the summit, while the four Asian candidates weigh bids.
