Europe has no ready-made substitute

While attention has focused on the restrictions themselves, the episode has exposed a harder fact for Kyiv's European partners: on the systems Ukraine's military relies on most, there is nothing to switch to. Ukraine has reported problems with its Starlink terminals and with US data warning of Russian ballistic missile attacks, and Reuters reported that European allies cannot offer any ready-made alternatives.

The dependency runs on two tracks:

• •Low-orbit satellite communications are provided by SpaceX through Starlink.
• •Early missile warnings rely on the US Space-Based Infrared System, a satellite constellation that provides alerts of incoming attacks.

For drones in particular, Europe does not have a ready-made alternative that Ukrainian soldiers could attach to their equipment, though European governments and companies are working on long-term options.

Musk points to the US government

Writing on X on Thursday 15 October, Elon Musk suggested that the US government could be behind the decision to restrict the speed of SpaceX's satellite technology used by Ukraine's military.

In his post, Musk drew a line between the two SpaceX services. Starshield systems are owned and controlled by the US government, he wrote, and any limits on speed or usage are decided by the US military and ultimately POTUS.

Starlink, by contrast, is a commercial service owned and controlled by SpaceX. Musk wrote that usage of Starlink is limited to civilian or defensive activities and cannot be used for offensive military action.

What the curbs mean for Kyiv

Ukraine says the restrictions limit its ability to use key defensive weapons.

The satellite curbs come amid a wider strain in intelligence cooperation. In an NPR interview aired on Wednesday, Zelenskyy said military advisers had received threats from the US that intelligence sharing could be limited in the future. Donald Trump denied on Tuesday that his administration had cut intelligence sharing.

Markets and the summit

Investors moved on the news before leaders did. Shares in the European satellite operator Eutelsat soared on Wednesday after news of Ukraine's difficulties with Starshield, on bets that European providers could benefit from the strains between Washington and Kyiv.

Whether Europe can turn those bets into alternatives is a question for later; the immediate one is diplomatic. EU leaders meet in Brussels on Thursday and Friday, with Thursday's talks focused on internal matters including the EU's next budget. Ukraine is expected to come up on Friday, when Zelenskyy joins other leaders in Brussels.