Record gas readings and a warmer baseline

The Our Atmosphere and Climate 2026 report, released on Wednesday, finds greenhouse gases at record levels in New Zealand's atmosphere. Carbon dioxide has climbed 30% since monitoring began there in 1972, while methane rose slightly in 2025 to its highest concentration ever. The same report sets out the warming those readings sit behind:

• •The annual average temperature has risen 1.36C since records began in 1909
• •Seven of the 10 warmest years on record occurred in the last decade

Glaciers face steep losses by 2100

New Zealand has roughly 3000 glaciers, and the report finds them shrinking as the climate heats. Their combined volume fell from 56 cubic kilometres in 1997 to 30 cubic kilometres in 2023. Modelling of glacier retreat points to further losses through this century:

• •Under the low climate scenario, glaciers are very likely to lose between 14 and 86% of their volume by 2100
• •Under the high climate scenario, that projected loss rises to between 69 and 100% of their volume

Collins called the projected decline substantial.

Heatwaves and warming oceans

The report said the additional heat is showing up in rising temperatures, warming oceans, rising seas, shifting rainfall patterns and more intense extremes. Heatwaves are very likely to increase in frequency, length and intensity across the country, and the number of days above 25C is also very likely to rise by 2050, exposing people to heat-related health risks including physical illness, disease and psychological distress.

At sea, marine heatwaves are becoming more pronounced and affecting some native species. The series revealed in 2025 that New Zealand's oceans are warming 34% faster than the global average. That warming has been linked to mass sea sponge bleaching, die-offs of southern bull kelp, large scale fish standings and penguin deaths.

Costs beyond the environment

The report outlined what continued warming could bring: storms and cyclones posing a risk to life, droughts affecting species and agricultural industries, sea level rise eroding infrastructure and housing, and Māori communities having reduced access to culturally significant places. Severe storms, including Cyclone Gabrielle and the Auckland floods in 2023, have already battered New Zealand in recent years, causing deaths, widespread devastation and billions of dollars in costs.

Dr Alison Collins, chief science adviser for the ministry for cities, environment, regions and transport (Mcert), said climate change is a human and economic story, not only an environmental issue. New Zealand was built around a relatively stable set of climate conditions, she said, and the report examines what happens when those conditions change. Multiple indicators show increased warming and the likelihood of climate change, she added, and the 1.36C rise is a significant baseline shift with ramifications for nature, communities, businesses and industry.

The Our Atmosphere and Climate 2026 report is the three-yearly update from Mcert and Stats NZ, collating statistics, data and research across five domains: air, atmosphere and climate, freshwater, land, and marine. Its glacier projections run to 2100, with further volume declines expected under both the low and high climate scenarios.