A lower house gamble

Nationals leader Matt Canavan confirmed on Monday he will seek preselection for Capricornia at the next federal election, a move that became possible after the sitting Liberal National party MP Michelle Landry announced she will retire. Speaking to reporters, Canavan said he was happy to put his political future on the line to deliver change in the central Queensland seat and "take our country back".

He had already signalled his intent last month, saying he was prepared to do "whatever it takes" to hold Capricornia for the Nationals.

One Nation targets the seat

One Nation will run a candidate against him. James Ashby, Pauline Hanson's national director, said he would not stand in the electorate himself but would still be involved on the ground. "I'll play a role in the campaign here in Capricornia but my position as national director is one that I take serious," he said.

Ashby argued the seat was within reach for his party. "Capricornia is a seat One Nation can win, so I intend to throw the resources and people behind a strong campaign," he said.

Hanson steps aside

Pauline Hanson, who sits in the Senate, has ruled herself out of running for the seat. She told reporters she was deferring decisions about where she or Ashby might stand, pointing to the distance to polling day.

"It's still over a year out from the election, a year and a half, so I'm not making any decisions," Hanson said.

The seat and the stakes

Capricornia, which encompasses Rockhampton, sprawls across more than 91,000 sq km. It is held by the Liberal National party on a 5.8% margin, a buffer analysts generally regard as safe, though they consider regional Coalition seats across Queensland and NSW to be particularly vulnerable and up for grabs.

The broader polling picture adds pressure:

• •Pollsters have warned Canavan has a "0%" chance of holding his Senate seat if One Nation's surge continues.
• •The latest Guardian Essential poll of 1,087 Australians, conducted late October, found Labor and One Nation tied at 28% of the primary vote.

Coalition figures have publicly backed Canavan's candidacy. Opposition leader Angus Taylor said he was very pleased Canavan was "throwing his hat in the ring", adding: "He's putting it all on the line, we're all putting it all in the line because we have to, because we need our country back." Nationals senator Bridget McKenzie pressed One Nation to change targets, saying: "If One Nation is really serious about firing the liar, then they need to start running in Labor party seats."