President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Thursday that Ukraine would no longer hold back from striking Russian oil refineries, telling the Financial Times: "The block [on attacking refineries] is out. We're done."

The declaration formally ends Kyiv's restraint under the 'energy ceasefire' that Donald Trump announced between Kyiv and Moscow. Ukraine had initially complied with that impromptu truce, though Zelensky said its announcement was "news to [him]" and Russia continued striking Ukrainian infrastructure throughout.

From compliance to defiance

Ukraine's initial restraint was not matched by Moscow: while Kyiv stood down on refineries, Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure continued.

The lifting of the block puts Ukraine's defiance of the truce on the record days after Trump publicly blamed Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries for rising diesel prices in the United States.

The row over Russian diesel

Last week, Trump announced a deal to obtain diesel from Russia, reversing years of US sanctions on Moscow in order to secure "lower prices for Americans".

Zelensky called the deal a "weak decision". Trump answered on Saturday that it was "time for Ukraine to get a new president", and followed up with the claim that refinery strikes by Ukraine were behind higher US diesel prices.

Satellite access restored, questions remain

Behind the public dispute sat a quieter crisis. For two nights this week the Ukrainian military was stunned by apparent restrictions on its access to Starshield, SpaceX's military satellite internet service, and said US intelligence warnings had also been cut off, leaving civilians especially vulnerable to ballistic missile attacks.

Zelensky used that word in an interview during a visit to the UK on Wednesday, after access to US intelligence and SpaceX satellite services was seemingly restricted.

Connectivity to Starshield was restored on Thursday, Ukrainian authorities said. But Zelensky called for "honesty" the same day, after Musk denied responsibility for the lapse and said the Pentagon was behind any restrictions, while Trump denied that US intelligence-sharing policy had changed.

Musk steps into the fight

Musk, who renewed his alliance with Trump after a public fallout in June, has begun speaking out against Ukraine's attacks on Russian data centres. On Thursday he wrote "Time for Zelensky to go" in a post on X.

The timing has drawn scrutiny from analysts:

• •Musk has become the biggest Republican donor ahead of November's US midterm elections, spending $245 million to back key candidates.
• •David Galbreath, professor of War and Technology at the University of Bath, said on Wednesday it was no surprise the access change came days after Musk called Ukraine's data-centre attacks "too far".
• •Majda Ruge, senior policy fellow for the US at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said Republicans face poor electoral prospects because of high energy prices and affordability pressures arising from the Iran war, explaining Trump's hostility to Ukrainian refinery attacks weeks before the midterms.
• •Ruge added that Trump's surprise announcement of the energy ceasefire was an attempt to demonstrate a foreign-policy success to voters.

Jonathan Monton, associate professor in political science and director of the International Public Policy Programme at University College London, said gestures on oil supply are all Trump has, since there is very little he can do practically to change real cost-of-living issues between now and the midterms. Monton also suggested Musk may genuinely agree with Trump that alleviating supply constraints would help Republicans and be pressuring Zelensky accordingly, though he said it is very hard to tell.

As of Thursday, Zelensky had signalled the change of heart to the Financial Times, removing the block on attacking refineries.