• Analysis
US Support for Ukraine After Trump's Midterms Defeat: What Democrats' Congress Win Changes
A crushing Republican defeat in the US midterm elections has given Democrats control of Congress, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Thursday he is optimistic about renewed US support for Ukraine - though few in Kyiv expect an immediate shift while President Trump still directs foreign policy.
Zelensky hails a Congress friendlier to Kyiv
The Republican Party's crushing defeat in the midterm elections has left Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky optimistic about the future of US support for Ukraine. Speaking to German public broadcaster ZDF on Thursday, he said the Democrats were "speaking very clearly about supporting Ukraine" and were talking about "renewing the connection between the US and Europe".
Zelensky added that he was hopeful he would be able to push for more funding and aid with defence under the new Congress.
They will find it very hard to satisfy these expectations, which could lead to very big disappointment down the road
Kyiv expects no quick change from the White House
That optimism is not widely shared in Ukraine itself. FRANCE 24 correspondent Emmanuelle Chaze reported that Ukrainians know US foreign policy still runs through the White House, and that few of them expect an immediate shift in how the US approaches the war with Russia.
President Trump, for his part, said on Friday that a "big, beautiful agreement" to end the war is close, one that could involve all of Europe.
- •US-mediated talks between Russia and Ukraine are due in Abu Dhabi next week.
- •The incoming Democratic Congress does not take office until the beginning of January.
The EU's warning on any deal
The European Union has cautioned that much work remains on the prospective agreement. EU spokeswoman Paula Pinho noted it would "obviously be up to the EU to decide on matters which affect its security".
Why a Democratic Congress may struggle to redirect policy
James M. Lindsay, senior fellow in US foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, agreed that the incoming Democratic Congress will be more supportive of Ukraine than the Trump administration has been. His list of Democratic priorities includes:
- •ending the war with Iran
- •reaffirming US support for Ukraine
- •reining in President Trump's use of tariffs
But Lindsay said Democrats will struggle to turn those preferences into actual change, because the president of the US retains significant authority over US foreign policy. The president alone decides who the United States negotiates with and what to negotiate over; Congress can criticise but cannot dictate the terms.
Lindsay also pointed to Trump's temperament, saying "he is someone who historically when challenged, doubles down rather than backs down" - meaning he may persist with his Russia policy and his hostility towards Ukraine. If Trump continues the disruptive foreign policies of the first two years of his second term, Congress will find it difficult to rein him in.
Finally, there is a timing problem: the Democrats won the election in November, but they don't take office until the beginning of January. US-mediated talks between Russia and Ukraine are due in Abu Dhabi next week - before the new Congress can act.
