A Win That Stops Short of a Majority

The Parti Québécois (PQ) won Monday's provincial election in Quebec, adding 56 seats to its roster and more than doubling its vote share compared with the 2022 election - a result that returns the party to power for the first time in 14 years.

The catch is arithmetic. The PQ finished five seats short of a majority, leaving its promise to hold a referendum after Donald Trump leaves office in 2028 nearly impossible to keep.

The scale of the win carries its own warning for the separatist cause:

• •Polling analyst Philippe Fournier noted the PQ won with barely 28% of the popular vote, the lowest percentage for any government in Canada's electoral history.
• •The vast majority of Quebecers voted for parties that reject holding a referendum.

An Electorate With No Appetite for a Referendum

The result reflects a 30-year aversion in the province to reopening the debate about Quebec's place in Canada, an aversion sharpened by Trump's tariffs and threats. The most popular politician in the province remains the Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney, largely because of his resistance to Trump.

John Parisella, who served as chief of staff to two Quebec premiers and as the province's delegate general in New York and Washington, offered a blunt reading of the numbers. For many Quebecers, he argued, the link with Canada is absolutely crucial even when it is not necessarily emotional - and, he added, the sight of Trump on screen each night does nothing to warm the province to the idea of separation. In his words: "Seventy percent of Quebecers don't want a referendum."

CAQ Collapses as the Federalist Vote Splits

The election also brought the total collapse of the governing Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), which had been in power since 2018. The party, an alliance of federalists and separatists that describes itself as nationalist, failed to win a single seat and took only about a third of its 2022 vote share. Leader Christine Fréchette lost her own riding to the Parti Québécois and resigned on Tuesday afternoon.

Separatists returned to the PQ's fold, while the federalist vote dispersed:

• •The Liberals under Charles Milliard regained seats on the island of Montreal and in the traditionally English Eastern Townships; the staunchly federalist party, unaffiliated with Carney's federal Liberals, will serve as Quebec's official opposition.
• •The upstart Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) won 19 ridings in the hinterland and the Quebec City area, where leader Éric Duhaime won his seat for the first time.
• •The PCQ's breakthrough rested partly on a promised underground highway linking Quebec City to its suburbs across the St Lawrence, despite government reports that it would cost as much as C$9.3bn and do little to alleviate traffic.

Plamondon's Minority Start

In his victory speech - delivered to the crowd even in English - PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon reached for two words to sum up how he intends to work with the rest of the country:

On Tuesday, though, he announced he would block the lieutenant governor, who represents the British crown, from swearing in his new government.

Several PQ initiatives now look uncertain, and the new government faces opposition from the start:

• •Plans to abolish the monarchy and apply Quebec's strict language laws to the province's colleges are in doubt.
• •Its plan to reduce immigration levels has angered farmers and the business community.

Governing with only a handful of Montreal seats will challenge the PQ, since history has shown that winning a referendum without the metropolis is somewhere near impossible.

Outside Quebec, Alberta holds a "referendum on a referendum" on secession in a little less than two weeks, though polls suggest Albertans are as averse to separation as Quebecers have now become, whichever party they chose to govern them.