Party room signoff and the reported numbers

The unveiling comes after Liberal and National MPs sign off at a special party room meeting convening on Tuesday morning, with Angus Taylor to present the policy the same day. Liberal sources said the Coalition's net overseas migration target would sit significantly below Labor's new one, while stopping short of One Nation's deeper cut. The reported trajectory, drawn from the Nine newspapers' reporting and the parties' own announcements, runs as follows:

• •The Nine newspapers report the Coalition would initially drop net migration to around 100,000 in the first year after the election
• •From that first-year low, net migration would then rise to a level between One Nation's 130,000 annual cap and Labor's 225,000
• •One Nation wants net arrivals capped at 130,000 people a year, following a brief initial period of net negative migration
• •Labor's plan, outlined by home affairs minister Tony Burke, would bring net overseas migration down to 245,000 this financial year and to 225,000 in 2027-28

Housing link, student crackdown and regional carve-outs

The cuts, which the Coalition says would maintain working holidaymaker places and prioritise skills, would be front-loaded, with the largest reductions placed in the first year to make an immediate impact on net overseas migration. As Taylor has previously announced, the number of new arrivals would be linked to housing completions in Australia. The package is pitched as an attempt to dent growing support for One Nation.

Foreign students and visa overstayers are part of the crackdown, alongside measures to remove people who have no legal pathway to stay. Last year Australia issued more than 337,000 international student visas, about 45,000 of them to dependants or family members of the primary applicant.

Nationals MPs warned that Labor's limits on working holidaymakers staying a second and third year would badly hurt regional industries including fruit picking, and pushed for carve-outs. Labor plans a ballot for backpackers wanting to stay beyond the initial first year, a measure designed to cut temporary worker numbers, and regional hospitality and agriculture businesses have lobbied the Coalition to avoid cuts to their workforce.

Liberal MP Andrew Wallace confirmed the plan had been modelled to test its effect on the Australian economy. Interviewed by Channel Nine, he cautioned that immigration could not be subjected to blanket cuts.

He said the plan would be very carefully targeted, both to the right number of people coming into the country and to the right skills, so that farmers and key industries have what they need to keep the country moving.

Coalition and One Nation trade fire over the leak

Leaked details of the plan triggered a battle of words between the two conservative parties. On X, Pauline Hanson said the opposition had turned up late to the grand final after both teams had headed back to the changerooms, waving a photocopy of One Nation's immigration policy. Shadow home affairs minister Jonno Duniam fired back on Tuesday, accusing One Nation of announcing detail-light policies and claiming its policy would, in his words, trash the economy with absolute disregard.

Duniam told News24 the grand final was far from over, however, and that casting One Nation among the top two teams on immigration amounted to hubris.

He said he looked forward to hearing more detail of One Nation's policy as the minor party tried to unpick the Coalition's, and dismissed Hanson's post as just another tweet, saying that was how One Nation did business.

Barnaby Joyce, who defected from the Nationals last year, claimed credit for the plan on Tuesday. He told 2GB radio he did not want to rubbish the Coalition and was happy One Nation were moving the agenda, saying the parties were chasing their old voters who had switched to One Nation.

Taylor is under pressure to stop and reverse an exodus of support to One Nation, which now surpasses the Coalition and Labor in some opinion polls. The policy is expected to be revealed on Tuesday, once Liberal and National MPs sign off at the special party room meeting convened that morning.