A window of opportunity

The Fleur Ravensbergen report, commissioned by the British and Irish governments, concludes that a "window of opportunity" exists to build a formal transition mechanism for loyalist and republican groups, provided certain conditions are met. Groups should not be paid for taking part, the report says.

Ravensbergen, a Dutch conflict resolution expert who lectures at the University of Amsterdam, set out her conclusion in Belfast: "I have concluded that there is sufficient merit in and support for a formal process of paramilitary group transition". A year-long scoping exercise found significant willingness to engage among paramilitaries. Resistance to the word disbandment as the endpoint was limited, and objections appeared to be about wording rather than substance.

Risks of inaction

Ravensbergen argued that the risks posed by persistent paramilitary structures, continued drift and unmanaged fragmentation outweigh the risks of attempting a structured and time-bound transition process. "Inaction is not a neutral option".

Any mechanism, she said, would need credible monitoring and verification of progress, alongside robust law enforcement. The report notes that the nature, extent and impact of paramilitary influence vary considerably between groups, communities and areas, but that residual structures continue to cause harm in some communities.

Government and ministerial reaction

Chris Bryant, the Northern Ireland secretary, thanked Ravensbergen and said the government was committed to ending paramilitarism. He said the groups "are largely engaged in criminality including drug dealing, extortion and intimidation, blighting the very communities they perversely claim to protect".

On next steps, Bryant said:

• •The government will consider the report and liaise with authorities in Dublin before responding to the proposed transition mechanism.
• •Implementation of any process will face challenges and will need support from across the political community in Northern Ireland.

Naomi Long, Northern Ireland's justice minister and an Alliance party member, criticised Ravensbergen's appointment as an interlocutor last year, saying engagement with paramilitaries and criminal gangs risked giving them a veneer of legitimacy. At the time she said: "The idea that paramilitary groups can transition into law-abiding entities has long since moved beyond the point of credibility".

Groups that outlasted the agreement

Paramilitary groups were expected to fade after the 1998 Good Friday agreement, but some endured and evolved into lucrative enterprises involved in drug dealing, extortion and coercive control.

The Independent Report on Paramilitary Group Transition to Disbandment did not identify individuals or specific organisations, because discussions were held on a confidential basis.

The government will now consider the report alongside the Irish authorities in Dublin before responding to the proposed transition mechanism.