A winner known only once coalitions form

An Israeli election marked by political uncertainty, unusually high voter participation and a significant mobilisation of Arab voters has left the shape of the next government unresolved. The Israeli president is trying to form a unity government in which neither Arab parties nor Orthodox parties will be needed.

Tamar Sebok, a France-based correspondent for the Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth, discussed the aftermath with Oliver Farry. In Israel, she explained, the strongest party in seats is not necessarily the one that governs: what counts is the willingness of other parties to join it.

Small parties hold the balance

Because a governing majority requires assembling several factions, Sebok argued that the smaller groups in coalition talks carry more weight than their size suggests. She put it plainly:

• •The small parties who are the balance have a lot more power than the big ones. It's a contradiction.

That arithmetic is what makes the president's task of building a bloc without Arab parties or Orthodox parties possible yet delicate, since the partners he can draw on must still add up to a majority.

Exclusions may not be final

Sebok cautioned against treating declared refusals to sit with Arab parties as set in stone. Recalling the coalition negotiations of 2021, she argued that the boundaries of political cooperation can shift considerably. She noted that the Arab parties have never been that strong.

Everything, she said, remains open in the coalition talks as the president pursues a unity government.