Polls project a fractured parliament

Recent surveys indicate a divided electorate as Israeli election polls show both the incumbent and the opposition falling short of a legislative majority. According to a Channel 13 survey, Jewish factions opposing the prime minister were expected to secure 52 seats, while his own bloc was projected at 51. Neither side reached the 61 seats required to govern. The Yashar party, led by Eisenkot, led the Channel 13 survey with 22 seats, compared to 18 for Likud.

The aftermath of the October 7 Hamas attack heavily influences voter decisions. Data from the Israel Democracy Institute revealed that 68 percent of Jewish participants consider the October 7 Hamas attack a primary factor in their voting choice. This sentiment is echoed on the streets, where voters express deep frustration with the current leadership.

Turgeman, a voter in Jaffa, stated he would support any candidate except the prime minister who was in office during the October 7 attacks. He emphasized that he has never voted for Likud and will not start now. He plans to back Eisenkot, seeking a leader who prioritizes the economy and soaring prices.

Economic anger and Haredi dissent

Financial pressures are compounding political dissatisfaction. The cost of food has climbed 9.5 percent over the last two years, pushing prices to record levels amid ongoing regional conflicts and disrupted supply chains. Turgeman criticized the government for thinking about wars while nobody is dealing with the economic crisis.

Beyond the economy, a dispute over military service is fracturing the ultra-Orthodox voting base. Ultra-Orthodox Jews, who make up about 14% of Israel’s population, have traditionally voted for parties backed by their rabbis. This dynamic shifted in 2024 when the supreme court determined that no legal justification remained for the military exemption.

• •Pinchas, a 24-year-old ultra-Orthodox student, has the impression that this time people his age won’t vote according to what the rabbis tell them.
• •He cited anger over the way Netanyahu handled the conscription law, and especially about the crackdown on those who protested.
• •Despite viewing all the options in this election as junk, Pinchas thinks he will vote for Eisenkot.

Palestinian parties barred from the ballot

Electoral authorities formally disqualified Ra’am and the Joint List, the two primary Palestinian factions, from participating in the upcoming vote. This ban followed a petition by the far-right Otzma Yehudit party arguing that they support terrorism.

Despite these barriers, Arab voters are navigating divided strategies to maintain political influence. Gadi Eisenkot, the former IDF chief of staff and Netanyahu's main opponent, has ruled out going into coalition with any of the parties led by Palestinian citizens, which are projected to win 12 seats.

Amir, a 34-year-old from Mashhad, views these elections as being about the strength of the Arab community and their ability to have an influential political voice. He plans to vote for the Joint List because he believes they need strong, united Arab representation on equality, discrimination and the Palestinian cause, while cooperating when it benefits their community.

Others prioritize pragmatic gains over unified representation. Abu Mahmoud, a 33-year-old from Kafr Kanna, notes that Arab society is being torn apart by crime and violence, while relations with Jewish Israelis are becoming more hostile. He intends to cast his ballot for Ra’am in order to negotiate budgets and collaborate with Jewish Israelis wherever feasible. Abu Mahmoud wants politics that can actually improve people’s lives. Ra’am, led by Mansour Abbas, became the first independent Arab party to join an Israeli governing coalition in 2021.

Voters will head to the polls in under a month to decide the next government, an election occurring after almost three years of regional conflict.

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