A 'true president' in Miami

The Brazilian election results had hardly been counted before Flavio Bolsonaro and his family left the country. According to several news outlets, the Bolsonaro family departed Brazil on Tuesday, travelled through Argentina and Ecuador and then boarded a private jet to the United States. Hours after touching down in Miami on Wednesday, the defeated candidate issued a statement declaring himself the 'true president' of Brazil, claiming he had been the victim of an electoral coup staged by the Supreme Court and President-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

The claim sits against a clear result: Lula won the election, held the previous weekend, by more than 4 million votes. The reception awaiting the family, meanwhile, was warm - his ally US President Donald Trump appeared to have been waiting, greeting him with a US visa.

The flight itself is not the only legal shadow: Flavio Bolsonaro faces investigations in Brazil for suspected money laundering, corruption, and for having illegally accepted campaign funding from a donor network connected to US Vice President JD Vance.

A shadow government in exile?

The question now occupying experts is whether the family could try to set up a parallel or shadow government in the US, mimicking the Cuban or Venezuelan opposition-in-exile models. The idea is taken seriously enough to be debated - but scepticism dominates.

Janaina Maldonado of GIGA said the comparison fails at the first test.

Part of the difference lies in the diaspora itself. Fiona Macauley, a Brazil expert at the University of Bradford, pointed out that most Brazilians living in the US are economic migrants and are not looking for a leader to rally behind - a stark contrast with the exile communities that sustained Venezuelan and Cuban opposition movements.

Nor does the outside world offer the family a stage. Trump suggested the election was 'rigged', but much of the international community - save Trump - has already recognised Lula as the legitimate winner.

How the escape reads to voters

If a movement abroad is unlikely, the flight still carries consequences at home. Macauley's verdict on the departure was blunt: "It's an incredible admission of guilt." She noted that nearly 60 million people voted for Bolsonaro and would likely now be feeling very bitter about the lack of courage shown by the man they backed.

Larissa Peixoto Gomes of the University of Edinburgh said the flight looks 'really bad', especially to undecided voters who were key in the elections.

Chris Lyon of the University of Birmingham drew the contrast that may sting most: Lula, when he faced corruption charges, stayed, and did not run away. Because of that, Lyon suggested, the president-elect emerges from the episode looking good.

Why the family cannot stop flying

The Miami landing is also only the latest chapter in a family pattern. His father Jair Bolsonaro did the same in 2022, fleeing to the US just two days before Lula was inaugurated for a third presidential mandate, after facing criminal probes. Last year, his brother Eduardo went into 'voluntary' US exile after accusations he had sought to convince Washington to impose sanctions.

There are legal reasons the pattern continues. Jair Bolsonaro is currently under house arrest, serving a 27-year sentence, and two of his sons risk lengthy prison terms if they return to Brazil. Flavio Bolsonaro, meanwhile, faces his own investigations in Brazil.

Whether 'Bolsonarism' can be led from a Florida address, then, is a question experts largely answer in the negative - and with much of the international community recognising Lula as the legitimate winner, the family's next move remains uncertain.