Cabinet dispute settled in Downing Street

The expected reduction of the electric car sales target follows a dispute between the transport, energy and business departments, which a meeting in Downing Street on Wednesday was held to resolve. Louise Haigh, the de facto deputy prime minister, will finalise the plan after that session.

According to government sources, Haigh is expected to sign off on a 2030 target of about 60% and to extend flexibilities until 2034. She is understood to have told colleagues she does not want them returning in future to demand another reduction of the target.

The positions that clashed in cabinet were laid out as follows:

• •Business secretary Jonathan Reynolds argued for the 2030 target to fall as far as possible, to 50%.
• •Transport secretary Heidi Alexander is believed to want it to be approximately 60%.
• •Energy secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh and her predecessor Ed Miliband want the 80% target retained.

Andy Burnham is taking no part in the decision, having stood aside over a family link: Marie-France van Heel, his wife, sits as an adviser to the board of Be.EV, a Manchester-based EV charging network. The decision comes as Burnham prepares to travel to his first Cop summit as prime minister, where he and foreign secretary Ed Miliband will champion electrification globally.

How the mandate works and what may change

Under rules set by the last Conservative government, carmakers must sell only electric vehicles by 2035, with the required proportion rising gradually to 80% by 2030. The policy is expected to deliver nearly 14% of all the emissions reductions the UK has pledged between 2028 and 2032.

The government launched a review of the zero emission vehicle mandate in August, proposing five main options:

• •Keep the mandate unchanged.
• •Keep the 80% target but extend flexibilities by four years, to 2034.
• •Reduce the interim target to 70%.
• •Reduce it to 60%.
• •Reduce it to 50%.

Carmakers have long warned that the interim targets are unattainable, citing higher inflation and a squeeze on living standards. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders says the industry will widely miss this year's 33% target, with battery electric vehicles accounting for 26.6% of new car sales in the first 10 months of the year. The targets also contain exemptions that allow carmakers to avoid fines even when they undershoot, for example by selling more hybrids or compensating with future EV sales.

That is how SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes described the position. He added: "Meaningful change to the trajectory, alongside expanded flexibilities throughout the regulation, is essential to bridge that gap, safeguard jobs and investment."

Backbench and industry protest

The expected move has drawn opposition from Labour MPs. Lizzi Collinge, who represents Morecambe and Lunesdale, told the ZEV [zero emission vehicle] mandate decision "will have a huge climate impact" - in her view, possibly the largest one facing the prime minister. She added that it "will also set the direction for tackling the cost of living and helping get our energy prices down over the coming decade."

Catherine Fookes, MP for Monmouthshire, said: "We need the ZEV mandate to stay, and Rosebank to be rejected."

Some MPs are already upset by the decisions to approve the Jackdaw gasfield and to cut funding for green schemes to fund higher defence spending; decisions on the Rosebank oilfield and the EV mandate are seen as critically important.

The charging industry has also pushed back. ChargeUK chief executive Shane Brennan said: "Weakening the mandate puts £1.7bn of charging infrastructure at risk and all the associated jobs and supply chain spending that goes with it." He warned that investors' confidence "will be rocked by a third change in three years" and that government should not cave to "the short-term interest of global car importers."

Paul McNamee, director of the Labour Climate and Environment Forum, said significant weakening from the current 80% targets "will be seen as a rowing back on climate leadership." He said the government must provide assurance that the mandate will not be weakened again in the coming years, that the 2035 EV target stays, and that it delivers a robust industrial strategy to protect jobs.

Government response and next step

A government spokesperson said: "The government is united in its commitment to the ZEV mandate and no decisions have been taken." The spokesperson reiterated commitments to the phaseout of all new cars relying solely on petrol and diesel engines by 2030, 100% zero-emission new car and van sales by 2035, and legally binding net zero targets. The consultation, the spokesperson said, would ensure "a pragmatic and balanced approach to the ZEV transition."

A cut of the scale expected would dismay the environmental movement and the EV charging industry, which relies on high vehicle sales to recoup its investment. The plan is due to be finalised by Louise Haigh this week; the government says no decisions have yet been taken.