Poland's deadliest shooting in decades

The Poland political crisis enters a fraught week after a gunman opened fire at random in the historic market square of Krakow, the country's second city, on Saturday. Six people, including two foreigners, were killed, and about 15 others were wounded. It was the worst fatal shooting Poland has seen since the end of communism in 1989.

The suspected death toll rose higher still with a discovery away from the scene:

• •The gunman is suspected of killing nine people in all
• •The bodies of three people - his parents and sister - were found at a home two hours' drive from Krakow
• •Police announced on Monday that the suspect had died in hospital

Terrorism investigation and a far-right row

Prosecutors on Sunday opened an investigation into an "act of terrorism". The case has already fed into the country's political antagonisms. Poland's interior minister said the suspect was fascinated by "far-right ideologies", a comment that drew the ire of the conservative and nationalist opposition.

Protests called off, march still on

The nationalist Law and Justice party (PiS), which governed from 2015 to 2023, called off planned protests for Monday and Tuesday after the shooting, though they could resume later in the week. The bigger worry is Wednesday's annual Independence March, which draws up to hundreds of thousands of right-wing supporters, ranging from Catholic conservatives to white-supremacist fringe groups and antisemitic, pro-Russian far-right elements.

President Karol Nawrocki has announced his attendance at the march. Some observers have described the event as "high-risk", fearing the crowd may deviate from its agreed route and head to the Constitutional Tribunal.

Prime Minister Donald Tusk moved on Sunday to shut down talk of a ban. On X, he wrote that no one intends to ban the Independence March, adding that speculation on the matter is nothing but disinformation. He also urged participants to "refrain from aggression" and warned against taking part in counter-demonstrations.

Tribunal showdown amid deep polarisation

Against this backdrop, a high-stakes meeting of the Constitutional Tribunal is due on Tuesday, amid the battle between Tusk's government and its opponents over judicial appointments. The right-wing opposition accuses the liberal, pro-European administration of undermining the constitutional order. The governing coalition, for its part, says it is correcting "political" nominations to the court and nationalist reforms it claims run counter to European democratic standards.

The standoff at the court has been building for weeks. Nationalist protesters have camped outside the building, riot police moved in late last month to block access, and a judge newly appointed by the parliamentary majority said she was taking over in the interim, suspending the incumbent - a figure close to the right and to President Nawrocki.

Writer Boguslaw Chrabota, in the weekly Rzeczpospolita on Sunday, described "an extremely destructive polarisation" that dismantles the state institutionally and divides society emotionally, arguing that the radicalisation of political discourse "gives rise to Polish Breiviks" - a reference to Anders Breivik, who killed 77 people in Norway in 2011.

Warsaw University political scientist Ewa Marciniak said the Krakow tragedy could be exploited for political gain.

Marciniak noted that after a period of shared mourning comes the search for those responsible, in a political climate of deep-seated mutual hostility among leaders. With parliamentary elections scheduled for autumn 2027, she said, events like the Krakow tragedy and the Constitutional Tribunal crisis are likely to be used "to deepen conflicts" and "draw the public into them".

PiS's postponed protests could resume later in the week, leaving Wednesday's Independence March and Tuesday's Constitutional Tribunal meeting as the next flashpoints in the crisis.