Thirty days before the 2026 midterm elections, Donald Trump and his Republican allies are fighting to keep control of Congress - but the newest polls show their Senate candidates trailing in the races that will decide the chamber. Polls by the New York Times and Siena University put Democratic Senate candidates ahead in Alaska, Ohio and Texas, all states Trump won by double digits in 2024, while Democrats need to win at least four seats to retake the majority.

Senate polls put Democrats ahead in states Trump won

Over the weekend the New York Times released the latest in a series of closely watched polls on the Senate contests, and the new results confirmed the momentum behind the Democratic bid to retake the chamber. Chuck Schumer, the Senate's Democratic minority leader, quipped as the numbers landed:

The surveys, conducted with Siena University, sketched the fight for the majority race by race:

• •In Alaska, Ohio and Texas, the Democratic Senate candidates are ahead of their Republican rivals.
• •In Kansas, which has not elected a Democrat to the Senate in 94 years, the Democrat Adam Hamilton is neck-and-neck with the Republican senator Roger Marshall.
• •In Iowa, the Democrat Josh Turek is narrowly trailing the Republican candidate Ashley Hinson.

Texas Republican warns statewide races would go blue

The alarm is audible inside the Republican party too. Briscoe Cain, a Republican state representative in Texas, wrote on X on Monday that every statewide race would go Democratic if the election were held the next day: "If the election were held tomorrow, all state wide races [would] go blue".

His concern is his own side's turnout: Republican voters, he warned, "feel too comfortable and are not as intense about this election as they should be". "We have more voters than the left in Texas, but we have to vote", he added.

The polling points the same way in Cain's own state: the Times and Siena survey had the Democrats' Senate candidate there, James Talarico, and their candidate for governor, Gina Hinojosa, both leading. More broadly, the Times and Siena found Democratic candidates for governor ahead in many traditionally Republican states.

Republicans still hold the money edge

None of this reflects a shortage of Republican money or effort. Super Pacs aligned with the GOP have already spent hundreds of millions of dollars on advertising and voter outreach in the races expected to decide the Senate and House majorities, and they plan to spend even more before election day. The president, the vice-president, JD Vance, and other top Republicans are fanning out across the country to stump for vulnerable Republican lawmakers.

Despite strong fundraising by some Democratic candidates, Republicans and the groups allied with their agenda still hold the edge in cash for this election. So far, though, there are no signs that the money or the rallies have improved the party's standing, less than two years after its resounding victories in the 2024 election.

The headwinds behind the numbers

Trump's poor approval ratings are believed to be a major cause of the struggles for Republican candidates nationwide, but they are far from the only factor. Also weighing are discontent over the economy - particularly the price of gasoline and other consumer staples - the on-again, off-again conflict with Iran, and concern over Trump's hardline approach to enforcing immigration laws.

A CBS News and YouGov poll released on Sunday gave Democrats a nine-percentage-point lead on the generic ballot, a key indicator of voter intention in congressional races, as the party campaigns to retake a House that Republicans control only narrowly. Eight House Republicans represent districts that voted for Kamala Harris in 2024, against 22 House Democrats - a number that has grown because of the unprecedented redistricting war Trump instigated.

Many polls show voters hold an unfavorable perception of the Democratic party, though their views of the Republicans are similarly negative.