The rally blitz opens in Nebraska

Donald Trump heads to Nebraska on Monday 5 October 2026 to fire up supporters as he opens a blitz of rallies ahead of the US midterms 2026 on 3 November. Judging by his early speeches, the crowds that follow can expect poll denial, accusations of veganism and heavy profanity. Aside from one "blue dot" district in Omaha, Republicans argue their support is steady in a state that has backed Trump three times.

The national ledger behind the tour looks rougher:

• •Trump's approval ratings are sinking
• •His Maga movement is fraying
• •An affordability crisis has been deepened by his unpopular war in Iran

Set against those headwinds, Trump supporters remain among the most motivated voters, and Republicans have far deeper funds to mobilise their base.

Who still believes in Trump?

Writing in an early edition of The Stakes, Rao described her morning bike ride to the Guardian's Washington office, threading past National Guard trucks and weighing how far her city has been militarised since the last election. The troop presence adds a subtle fear to daily life, she says - not one she actively feels, though she worries things could escalate fast. In Minneapolis, Los Angeles and Washington DC, cities she calls vocal and largely Democratic, residents are undeterred by the deployed troops.

First Edition reader Johanne of Quebec, Canada, asked the question plainly: who still believes in Donald Trump? Rao's short answer is that many Americans feel no better option has been offered them yet. In primary season, voters in both parties backed candidates they felt would actually "stick it to the man" rather than repeat established party platforms. Some who were drawn to Trump as an anti-establishment figure now watch him side with big tech and other corporate interests, particularly this last term in office.

Rao sees a serious disconnect between the president and his supporters, and says his political instincts have faltered because he cannot see past his own fixations - the ballroom, the Iran war, unchecked AI growth. Her reporters across the US hear the same concerns in almost every community they spend time in: among them, Democratic senator Jon Ossoff's use of the term "Epstein class", and an unnamed Ohio voter who said at the weekend that they did not care whose name is on the Kennedy Center.

Executive orders, mail ballots and the integrity watch

Bron Purkiss of England asked whether Trump holds a decisive "dirty trick" up his sleeve for the election. The record so far: in the run-up to the midterms, Trump signed executive orders seeking to assert more control over voting methods, and in a Time magazine interview the week before publication he refused to rule out declaring a national emergency around elections to implement them.

For Rao, the question lands on long-built groundwork. She joined Guardian US seven years ago as voting rights editor and launched its multiyear democracy project. Four reporters covered that project and are now part of the larger politics team, with election integrity central to the coverage. She says the team is prepared for anything, and counts legal challenges in individual midterm races as almost inevitable.

She says the reporting plan is fixed on the states that matter most:

The mail ballot sits at the centre of the ground game:

• •Fear of rigging runs high in the communities reporters visit; Democrats are anxious their votes count and increasingly wary of mail-in ballots
• •Almost one-third of Americans vote by post
• •A September edition of The Stakes covered Trump's efforts to restrict postal voting
• •Rao suggests the restrictions could lift turnout - early data in the deeply red state of Florida showed voter registration among Democrats already very high
• •She hears a determination among voters to turn out in droves, so wins are too decisive to dispute

House, Senate and the democratic socialist question

Peter Alexander of England asked whether Republican losses would limit Trump's excesses. Rao avoids predictions, but says a vote held tomorrow would hand the Democrats the House and most likely the Senate - a picture set against Trump's pledge of a "big surprise" on 3 November and polls' record of predicting the wrong results in previous elections. In her view, only a decisive majority in both chambers could truly check a president who sidestepped congressional authorisation altogether ahead of the Iran war.

A Democratic win would set work in motion. Rao anticipates a slew of investigations after the midterms, launched in the House and then requiring the Senate to move them forward. Calls already exist for an investigation into revelations that a Russian oligarch bankrolled part of Donald Trump Jr's recent wedding in the Bahamas.

Feride Hekimgil of Turkey asked how democratic socialists will shape policy decisions after the midterms. Rao calls it a "huge question", with progressive candidates capturing the enthusiasm of voters desperate for radical change. Only a handful of Democratic Socialists are likely to be elected, but she says they could prove a "very vocal group". Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the example she points to: upfront about her affiliation when running, yet far more strategic and collaborative with establishment Democrats than obstructive.

What an enlarged bloc does after 3 November is unresolved - whether it cooperates or takes a hardline stance, notably on Israel's destruction in Gaza, an issue that has already carved deep divisions into the Democratic party.

From Nebraska, the rally blitz now rolls on toward polling day on 3 November.