The Trump midterm rallies blitz is under way: a 32-day sprint, at an expected five to seven rallies a week, designed to help Republicans defend narrow congressional majorities in next month's midterms. It opened in Durant, Oklahoma, on Thursday night – but only after foul weather grounded Air Force One in Texas and sent Donald Trump's motorcade racing to Oklahoma by road at nearly 100mph. Even as the president ramps up the schedule, some Republicans fear the campaigning is driving their party towards an electoral wipeout.

Storm grounds Air Force One; the motorcade takes over

Foul weather left Air Force One stranded in Texas on Thursday. Trump, as he later recalled, ordered his team to press on by road anyway, telling them: "Get your asses in that car". The motorcade raced on to Oklahoma at nearly 100mph, delivering the president to Durant for the opening night of the blitz.

Inside the arena, the familiar choreography took over. Spotting two diehard supporters being interviewed by TV crews outside the venue, Trump replayed the clip and summoned them on to the main stage. "You can't miss big, strong, handsome Oklahoma studs", he told the crowd. One of the pair, wearing a green Trump cap and a grey Trump T-shirt, thanked the president from the microphone: "Thank you, President Trump, for all you do. Every day you work harder than any American I know".

"Pretend I'm running, please", Trump told the Oklahoma audience, begging them to contact friends and relatives. He was candid about where the map troubles his party: "We're worried about Michigan, we're worried about Texas, we're worried about a few states."

Approval at an all-time low, and worry inside the party

The launch lands against the worst numbers of Trump's presidency. His approval rating has fallen to an all-time low. A recent survey by the Associated Press-Norc Center for Public Affairs Research found:

• •just 17% of US adults approve of his handling of the cost of living
• •26% approve of his handling of the economy, a new low
• •only about three in 10 approve of how he is handling his job as president

Voter anger centres on the cost of living, the Iran war and heavy-handed immigration crackdowns. The alarm has reached party money, too: a major Republican political action committee has reportedly pulled its spending out of North Carolina – the only battleground state Trump won in all three of his presidential bids – and shifted resources to ruby red Kansas.

A 'mainstay of his brand' or 'the engine of his doom'?

The events themselves are a fixture: since launching his bid for president in 2015, Trump has held roughly a thousand rallies, though definitions of what counts as a full rally vary. Their atmosphere sits somewhere between cult worship, rock concert and partisan sports event, giving followers a sense of belonging and showing the enduring pull of live performance in a hyper-digital age.

Political strategist Steve Schmidt argues the same pull has turned toxic. The rallies have been "a mainstay of his brand", he said, but also "the engine of his doom", because Trump's presence hurts every Republican candidate on the ballot: the race is fundamentally about a president voters are tired of. In his account, Trump is surrounded by people telling him to keep talking, performing and doing more rallies, not less.

His verdict on the damage they now do was blunt: the rallies, Schmidt said, have become a lead weight and an anchor that will drown Republicans.

Inside the Durant arena, the rebuttal was on stage. Blake Marnell, a rally regular from San Diego, California, who wears a brick-patterned suit resembling Trump's border wall, was there on Thursday night. Trump enjoys the rallies, Marnell said – they energise the crowd and connect him with the grassroots. The 100mph motorcade sprint to Durant read, to him, as proof that "he's not gonna let stuff get in his way".

Asked whether the rallies hurt Republicans, Marnell rejected the charge: critics, he argued, have wrongly been declaring Trump finished for years. Turnout, the goal of the rallies, will sway this election to an extent larger than normal, he added.

Trisha Hope, a "front-row Joe" who once bought an RV and published a book of Trump's tweets to fund her travel, has declared Trump a "fraud and liar". Speaking to Politico, she cited his abrupt dismissal of the Jeffrey Epstein investigation during a cabinet meeting, and his unfulfilled promises regarding the war in Iran. "If we do lose the midterms and he is impeached again, I will be walking the halls of Congress in support of that impeachment", she said.

Biden, ballrooms and a 'bad job selling it'

Trump's own answer on the trail has been to change the subject and blame his predecessor. Confronted with the negative numbers, he has preferred discussing his architectural projects in Washington, including a new White House ballroom. At an earlier Thursday stop in Denton, north-west of Dallas, Texas, he insisted that inflation was entirely the fault of Joe Biden.

At a truck factory, he lamented to workers: "We have the greatest numbers of any president in the history of our country, and I can't get the word out". Then came the concession: "Maybe we're doing a bad job selling it."

Author and pollster John Zogby sees more than a communications problem. "It looks as if he's very out of touch with the reality of most Americans", Zogby said. In his view, the 80-year-old's rally performances have noticeably deteriorated: "Number one, he is tending to digress. He's not on his best form."

The blitz rolls on regardless, at an expected five to seven rallies a week until next month's midterms.