A one-for-one expulsion warning

The warning reached Israeli officials in a message that was first reported by the Israeli newspaper Ynet. Under it, one Israeli diplomat would be sent home for every British diplomat forced to leave Israel as a result of the closure decision. If carried through, the expulsions could reach as many as 27 Israeli diplomats based in the UK, a step described as arguably the lowest point in British-Israeli relations since Israel's founding.

• •The UK Foreign Office declined to deny the report, saying it would not comment on speculation rather than denying it outright.
• •An Israeli diplomatic source said Israel saw no reason to respond to speculation about decisions other countries may or may not take in the future.
• •The same source said Israel had already demonstrated that any step taken against it will be met with an appropriate response, and that this would continue.

Why Israel is closing the consulate

Israel has threatened to close the consulate in protest at the UK decision to ban trade in goods from illegal Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank. The UK is also imposing sanctions on British firms that aid, support or facilitate the construction of further illegal settlements.

The measures drew a fierce response from Israeli foreign minister Gideon Sa'ar, who accused the UK's ruling Labour party of being hostile towards Israel.

Dominic Grieve, a former UK attorney general, has informally advised the Foreign Office that Israel would be acting unlawfully if it closed the consulate on the basis of its East Jerusalem location. East Jerusalem is recognised by the United Nations and most of its members, including the UK, as occupied Palestinian territory.

• •The consulate is separate from the UK embassy based in Tel Aviv.
• •It carries a distinct diplomatic role covering East Jerusalem, the rest of the West Bank and Gaza.
• •The mission sits in the Sheikh Jarrah neighbourhood.

A failed mission to Jerusalem

Jonathan Powell, the UK's national security adviser, travelled to Jerusalem last week to persuade the Israeli government to rescind or defer the closure, but the talks failed. Powell has reportedly opposed foreign secretary Ed Miliband's decision to press ahead with the settlement trade ban, fearing it could benefit Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Netanyahu is seeking to bolster his case that only his brand of leadership can bring Israel security ahead of the national election on 27 October. There is no evidence yet that the UK decision has featured in the campaign, though tit-for-tat expulsions of diplomats may raise its profile.

How relations reached this point

UK-Israeli relations have deteriorated steadily during the war in Gaza that began with Hamas's 7 October 2023 massacre of Israelis. The UK became increasingly critical of Netanyahu appearing prepared to tolerate the death of thousands of Palestinians in a bid to render Hamas inoperative, a task both Conservative and Labour governments thought unachievable through his methods. It has rescinded a large number of arms export licences to Israel, and Miliband has spoken of evidence of war crimes in Gaza.

• •In a statement to the UK parliament, Miliband said settler terrorists supported by Netanyahu's government are committing ethnic cleansing in the West Bank, which Israel disputes.
• •He received a very warm reception at last week's Labour party conference, where his speech highlighted his decision to get tough with Israel over illegal settlements.
• •He has declined to accuse Israel of genocide, saying he believes that is a matter for international courts alone.

The dispute reflects growing frustration among Israel's longtime allies over its settlements in the occupied West Bank, which much of the world views as illegal. Israel has also said it will revoke the credentials of Dutch diplomats at the country's mission to Palestine, in response to the Netherlands' ban on imports from illegal Israeli settlements.

Because Israel militarily occupies the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza, diplomats need Israeli accreditation to operate in Palestine, and the Dutch decision also in effect bars them from Israel-controlled East Jerusalem. France and Canada, which also joined the UK in the settlement trade ban, have not had action taken against them.

Israel's foreign ministry has said the consulate will close on Thursday. The UK, for its part, maintains that any British diplomat Israel forces out will be matched by the expulsion of an Israeli diplomat.