Witnesses said Ethiopian federal forces entered Mekelle, capital of the northern Tigray region, on Saturday and seized its airport, reversing a takeover of the city by Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) rebels that had prompted the suspension of commercial flights the previous month.

Federal forces enter Mekelle as TPLF pulls out

A humanitarian source said federal forces entered the Tigray state capital on Saturday, after residents reported the rebels had abandoned the city. Late on Saturday, a humanitarian source citing staff reports from the ground said federal and allied forces had reportedly been observed at various locations across Mekelle.

A journalist in the city said TPLF militants and leaders were leaving, and that government offices and police stations had been left without security personnel. Mekelle's airport, on the southern approach to the city, had reportedly fallen to a pro-government militia on Friday.

Residents described a city left without any security presence:

• •One resident said they were concerned that government and public property could be exposed to looting.
• •Another said lawlessness could spread in the city, and expressed fear for their own life, wanting a quick return to law and order.

From September attacks to a three-axis advance

The TPLF has been fighting pro-government forces since September 23, when fighting erupted in northern Ethiopia as the front launched attacks into neighbouring states, raising fears of a repeat of the 2020-2022 civil war. The rebels initially made advances in the neighbouring Afar and Amhara states, working alongside local militias.

Federal forces and pro-government militias pushed the rebels back in recent days and were heading north towards Mekelle. After the pushback this week, the government launched a counter-offensive into Tigrayan territory along three axes towards Mekelle, according to the Critical Threats Project of the American Enterprise Institute think tank.

A humanitarian source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the TPLF had been entirely pushed out of Afar.

Guerrilla warning from the TPLF leader

In a video message on Thursday, TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael implied the front would continue guerrilla-style attacks, as it did when Mekelle fell to government forces in 2020. That earlier insurgent campaign ultimately led to the TPLF retaking the city in mid-2021.

In the message, he said the TPLF operates under a strategy to strike the enemy wherever it chooses. He also described the war as regional and as one to control the Red Sea.

The TPLF has long been the dominant force in Tigray and ousted a government-appointed administration earlier this year. It ruled all of Ethiopia from 1991 to 2018, when it was marginalised with the rise of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who hails from the Oromia region.

Tensions led to a civil war from 2020 to 2022, which left more than 600,000 dead, according to the African Union. The 2022 Pretoria peace agreement, brokered by African institutions and Washington, maintained an uneasy calm until last year but was never fully implemented.

Diplomatic ripples and hard-to-verify reports

The conflict has triggered a breakdown in Ethiopia's relations with Eritrea and Egypt, which Ethiopia accuses of supporting the rebels.

• •Ethiopia expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats and shut its embassy in Asmara on Thursday, and Eritrea responded that it would sever all diplomatic ties.
• •Eritrea accuses landlocked Ethiopia of planning to invade and seize access to its coastline.
• •Ethiopia also expelled an Egyptian diplomat without explanation, prompting a reciprocal move by Cairo.

Neither the spokesperson for the Ethiopian National Defense Forces nor that of federal Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed responded to requests for comment. Little of what emerges can be verified: telecommunications networks have been severely disrupted in Tigray since hostilities began, social media accounts are hard to confirm, media access is heavily restricted and there have been significant communications blackouts.

A diplomatic source said a mini-summit on Sunday would bring together the presidents of Egypt, Eritrea and Somalia, with Somalia's president named as Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, and the head of the Sudanese Armed Forces, Abdel Fattah al-Burhane, in Alamein, Egypt, on the sidelines of an African Business Forum.