A vote Vucic treats as a referendum

Serbia votes on Sunday in what is being described as its most contested parliamentary election in more than 14 years. The contest has taken shape as a referendum between Vucic's right-wing Serbian Progressive Party and the youth-backed Students' List, with the main contenders believed to be polling neck-and-neck.

The country's 6.4 million voters are choosing from 18 parties hoping to enter the 250-member Parliament, and the result is considered the most uncertain in recent years.

Vucic's move from president to PM candidate

If the Serbian Progressive Party wins the most votes, Aleksandar Vucic will become prime minister after serving two near-full terms as president. He resigned the presidency last month to lead the campaign.

His party took office 14 years ago, and the student movement is seen as having rattled his grip on power like no other opponent in that period. Yet Vucic still retains considerable support, and his admirers regard him as a capable leader who can steer the nation through global uncertainties.

The challenge from the students

The populists' popularity has eroded since 16 people were killed when a concrete canopy collapsed at a train station in Serbia's north. Protesters said rampant graft led to negligence during renovation work at the Novi Sad station, leading to the collapse.

The Students' List that emerged from the protests carries no students at all - its candidates are little-known experts, athletes, farmers and artists. Their campaign:

• •Promised a non-partisan effort to rebuild Serbia's economy and democracy after a change of government, under a "we know how" message.
• •Took students cycling and walking through rural areas, Vucic's traditional strongholds, to reach voters directly.
• •Carried on despite the students being vilified by pro-government media.

Turnout, monitors and the count

Turnout is expected to be high and could push most smaller parties below the 3 percent threshold needed to enter the assembly. The European Union is watching the conduct of the vote closely in the candidate nation for bloc membership.

International and local election monitors voiced concern about the safety and fairness of a campaign marked by detentions, near-total government control over the media and reports of surveillance and cyberattacks against activists. Local elections earlier this year in 10 municipalities saw violent attacks on journalists and activists, and the previous parliamentary vote in 2023 was followed by opposition protests alleging fraud.

Vucic said his side would concede defeat if it lost, but warned that any protests erupting to claim fraud in case of his party's triumph would be immediately quashed. Election surveys show varied results, both camps say they are ahead, and some analysts fear postelection instability in case of a close result.

Magda Anastasijevic, Eastern Europe analyst for ACLED, said electoral violence has been on the rise in Serbia recently and could escalate, "particularly if the results are disputed."

The state election commission is not expected to release the official tally before Monday.