How the Novi Sad collapse sparked the movement

The Serbia student protest movement traces its start to a single night of disaster. On 1 November 2024, a concrete canopy collapsed at Novi Sad railway station, killing 16 people. Evidence pointed to botched modifications made during refurbishment work, but no official finding on the cause has been issued and no official has been held accountable.

Three weeks after the collapse, Belgrade students holding a road vigil for the victims were attacked by a mob linked to the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). From that point, the protest movement went nationwide. The students chose to operate without hierarchy or conventional leadership, partly because the SNS and state-run media rule in part through smearing opponents, and a collective approach offered fewer targets.

A grassroots candidacy and a door-to-door campaign

The Student List has now converted street protest into a ballot challenge. It put forward 250 candidates, mostly nominated by university faculties, with more than 160 doctorates among them alongside some farmers and other professions. Every candidate was approved by plenary sessions of the student protests, and the platform itself was decided by the plenum: divisive issues were played down, future EU membership has been left to a referendum, and Kosovo is claimed as an integral part of Serbia.

Milica Jovanović, an assistant professor at the University of Belgrade who is among the chosen candidates, argued that inexperience is no drawback.

The campaign is being fought on doorsteps. Canvassers are being sent to every village in an attempt to break into Vučić's solid rural base, and the outcome may hinge on rural minds. In Krnjača, on the edge of Belgrade, local complaints included the poor repair of the road bridge to the city centre and a sewage system that fails in heavy rain - despite a personal promise by Vučić, whom residents said had visited a few years earlier, to fix the problem.

Corruption is the most frequent complaint on doorsteps. Serbia ranks as the most corrupt country in Europe bar Belarus and Russia on Transparency International's index, and the Student List confronts the perception directly with its slogan, "Serbia or Mafia?" The government denies all accusations and says it is tackling organised crime.

• •250 candidates nominated, mostly by university faculties
• •More than 160 doctorates on the list
• •Every candidate and the platform approved by plenum
• •Canvassers dispatched to every village

The economy has grown in recent years, but many Serbs believe the fruits are unfairly distributed. In Krnjača, Porsche and Land Rover showrooms stand near neglected public spaces, and some Belgrade trams are more than 50 years old.

Vučić's counter-moves and a tilted field

Vučić responded by reshaping the political battlefield. He announced his resignation as president on 28 September, five months before the end of his second and final term under the constitution, and called snap elections - apparently hoping to catch the students off guard, though they responded by improvising a democratic experiment. He aims to remain in power as prime minister leading the SNS, which has held power for 14 years and controls the state apparatus.

He also mounted a media blitz, making 129 live television appearances in August, more than four times the previous month's total - a sign he takes the student threat seriously.

The campaign environment is uneven. A CRTA survey in September found 69% of air time on Serbian television channels was dedicated to the ruling majority; of the opposition coverage that did appear, 42% was negative and 53% neutral. The Student List has also accused the foreign ministry of rigging the diaspora vote by keeping polling stations open in pro-Vučić areas such as the Serbian part of Bosnia while closing some in North America; the ministry did not respond to a request to comment.

Past Serbian elections have seen allegations of vote-buying, voter intimidation and ballot box stuffing, and attacks on opposition representatives by anonymous black-clad burly men have been a frequent feature of SNS rule, raising the risk of election-day clashes. Against this, the Student List plans to deploy an unprecedented number of opposition monitors on Sunday.

What could decide the outcome

Polling gives a contested picture. A survey published in July by the Centre for Research, Transparency and Accountability (CRTA) and Stanford University found 45% support for the students against 36% for the SNS, but it was taken before Vučić's resignation announcement. More recent domestic polls, which the opposition views as pro-government, show the SNS in the lead.

Electoral specialists see a narrow path. Radivoje Grujić, an electoral consultant based in Warsaw, argued the students can win only by mobilising Serbs who previously abstained from politics after the Novi Sad disaster. "These people were saying: I'm not involved in politics, and then politics got them killed," he said.

Raša Nedeljkov, CRTA's programme director, said Serbia has been an electoral autocracy in which only ruling political parties can win - but that the status quo is now in jeopardy. The homogeneous government Vučić used to have is no longer there, he added, and he is faced with a completely unorthodox political actor. In a close race, minority parties representing ethnic Hungarians, Bosniaks and Albanians could emerge as kingmakers.

Not everyone expects the students to go far. Gordana Čomić, a former opposition Democratic party member who served as a minister in the SNS government, said the students were exaggerating their rural campaign and predicted they would win about 80 of the 250 seats in the national assembly and then dissipate. "They are not in the field. It's propaganda. They have no clue who their voters are," Čomić said.

Diplomats in Belgrade believe Vučić's plan to host EXPO 2027 next year could constrain any violence; he could also force repeated recounts if his hold on power is threatened. The students, for their part, have focused their planning in recent weeks on post-election street tactics to defend any victory.

• •Students led the July poll 45% to 36% for the SNS
• •Later domestic polls show the SNS ahead
• •Grujić says victory depends on mobilising former abstainers
• •Minority parties could become kingmakers in a close race

At a demonstration outside Belgrade's education ministry, Jelena Kleut, an associate professor of media studies, described the mood driving the movement. "I think there is a strong feeling of now or never," Kleut said. People, she added, have felt in their skin what the regime is capable of and "there is a sense you still need to stay strong because the job is not finished."

The students also hope to emulate the defeat of Vučić's ally, Viktor Orbán, in Hungary six months ago, which they see as potentially triggering a democratic resurgence across central Europe. In Krnjača, one canvasser put the formula plainly: "Turnout is the key," noting that Orbán fell with 80% turnout. Sunday's vote will show whether that gamble pays off.