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Lula da Silva Re-election Faces a Congress Where Bolsonaro Allies Hold the Seats
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won a fourth term by beating Senator Flavio Bolsonaro 51.7 percent to 48.2 percent in a runoff on a Sunday, but Bolsonaro's Liberal Party and its allies could control over 280 lower house seats and up to 50 Senate seats - enough for majorities in both chambers.
By Haut Monde Post
• October 26, 2026
• 3 Min Read
A narrow win, an unfriendly Congress
The Lula da Silva re-election was confirmed by Brazil's electoral court after a Sunday runoff, in which the incumbent took 51.7 percent of the vote against 48.2 percent for Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. The victory, achieved when the president was nearly 81 years old, hands him a fourth term - but it does not hand him a compliant legislature.
The same ballot that decided the presidency filled Congress, and the numbers there tell a harder story for the government:
- •Bolsonaro's Liberal Party and its allies could control over 280 seats in the lower house
- •The same bloc could hold up to 50 seats in the Senate
- •That would be enough for majorities in both chambers
Analysts see a constrained president
That arithmetic has shaped how political observers assess the term ahead. Oliver Stuenkel, a professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in São Paulo, said the president is likely to begin his fourth term with his authority already diminished - and worse could follow.
"He is likely to be a lame duck from the start."
Stuenkel pointed to even the threat of impeachment as a possibility Lula may face, given the opposition's position in Congress. On the fiscal side, Goldman Sachs said it expects Lula to make modest progress at most to contain spending while remaining committed to a state-led growth model.
The economic backdrop
The incoming term carries heavy fiscal numbers. The government forecasts the economy will grow a meager 2.3 percent next year, while public debt has risen past 82 percent of GDP - the highest level since the pandemic.
Household finances were a live campaign issue: during the race Lula rolled out a provisional ban on online betting and unveiled a new debt relief program to address surging household debt. His late-campaign pledges also included free nationwide weekend public transport, a measure that must be submitted to Congress, and a 15 percent increase in his trademark welfare program that is already being implemented.
How the comeback happened
The runoff capped a comeback that had looked unlikely after the first round, when Flavio Bolsonaro finished first and hoped to revive his father's far-right movement. Lula is the first candidate since Brazil's return to democracy in the 1980s to be elected after finishing second in the first round.
Pollsters said better-than-expected turnout had powered Lula to victory. Leonardo Barreto, co-founder of consultancy Think Policy, framed the choice voters faced at the ballot box: "People today are choosing between change, with some apprehension, and a known path, which guarantees certain rights."
The new term begins with Lula facing opposition majorities in both chambers of Congress and a government forecast of 2.3 percent growth next year with public debt past 82 percent of GDP.
