Exit polls hand United List an unexpectedly wide lead

Latvia held a parliamentary election on Saturday, and exit polls published by public media LSM put Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs' centre-right United List in the lead with 35.6 percent - an unexpectedly wide margin for the pro-Ukraine, pro-Europe party. The projections, released on Saturday evening, suggest the country will maintain its pro-European and pro-Ukrainian course. Kulbergs has led the government only since May.

Speaking to journalists after the announcement, Kulbergs cautioned that the count was not final.

He read the number as an appetite for change: the result showed, in his words, that people truly want change - which he said meant economic growth and a future for Latvia's children.

Coalition partner falls below the parliamentary threshold

The strong night for United List came at a cost for the government it leads. Pre-election polling had already pointed to a weakening of the coalition, which will probably not survive in its current form.

• •Coalition partner the Union of Greens and Farmers appeared to finish with only 3.7 percent, below the five-percent threshold needed to enter parliament
• •Projected results for the other coalition parties suggest the centrist prime minister will have to form a new ruling coalition

Populists gain ground behind the leader

Behind United List, the exit polls pointed to a strong night for populist forces:

• •Latvia First finished in second place with 11.3 percent according to exit polls
• •The Progressives, a pro-European social democratic party advocating stronger social protections and continued support for Ukraine, took third at 11.1 percent
• •Sovereign Power, criticised as pro-Russian by its detractors, came fourth with 10.8 percent

Latvia First, led by businessman Ainars Slesers, could prove a more viable coalition partner. Sovereign Power has opposed military aid to Ukraine and further increases to defence spending, highlighting domestic economic problems instead - yet despite its gains it is unlikely to enter government, because most major parties have ruled out working with it.

The numbers carry a caveat. Exit polls are usually reliable, but voter reluctance to admit support for more radical parties may mean the populist parties perform better than anticipated. Roberts Kits, an analyst at the Latvian think tank LaSER, told AFP the biggest increase over the exit polls would likely go to Sovereign Power and Latvia First, the parties supported by the Russian-speaking electorate.

Security and living costs framed the campaign

Security questions were the main topic of the campaign in Latvia, an EU and NATO member state sitting on the eastern flank of both blocs. Four years after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, security remains central to political debate. A member of NATO and the European Union since 2004, Latvia views Russia as its principal security threat.

Defence spending has risen sharply since Moscow's 2022 invasion, and Latvia now allocates nearly five percent of its GDP to defence. Most parties expected to enter parliament back both high military spending and maintaining aid to Kyiv.

The populists gained ground by focusing on domestic issues such as the cost of living in the least affluent of the Baltic states. Rising living costs, low wages, strains on the healthcare system and long-term population decline featured prominently in campaign debates. Voting patterns among Latvia's large Russian-speaking minority are changing, with many voters increasingly making choices based on economic and social issues rather than identity politics alone.

Sigita Struberga, secretary general of Latvian transatlantic association LATO, told AFP it was too early to predict the shape of any future coalition.

Preliminary official results are expected on Sunday, when attention will quickly shift to coalition talks that could prove lengthy and complex.