Opposition bloc gathers in Herzliya

The first concrete step in the Israeli opposition coalition effort came on Tuesday morning, when party heads led by Gadi Eisenkot gathered in Herzliya to discuss coordinating the bloc's next steps - their first meeting since last week's election. The gathering follows Monday's show of unity: all the party leaders in Eisenkot's camp had by then said they will back him as candidate for prime minister.

The arithmetic they face remains tight. Eisenkot's change bloc won 48 seats in the 120-member Knesset, while Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing alliance secured 53 - 27 of them from his Likud party - leaving neither side with a majority,.

Netanyahu stakes his claim

Netanyahu moved on Monday, calling for a broad national government under his leadership that would exclude the Arab parties. In a statement on Likud's Telegram channel, he said: "A clear majority of the Jewish public chose Likud as the largest party and chose me, as prime minister, to lead the next government".

He added that his camp is open to others: "We seek to establish a broad government with our partners and with any party that wishes to join and does not support terrorism". His exclusion of the Arab lists rests on allegations - reported, not established - that those parties "support terrorism and deny the existence of the Jewish state".

Where the Arab lists stand

The parties Netanyahu would bar hold unprecedented weight: Arab-majority lists won a record 19 seats in the 120-member parliament, making them potential kingmakers. Their positions and the divisions inside Eisenkot's own camp shape any bargaining:

• •Leaders of the Arab Israeli parties unanimously condemned the Hamas attack on Israel of October 7, 2023, without calling Hamas a terror group.
• •The leader of the Raam party has recognised Israel as a "Jewish state", while other Arab party leaders reject that definition.
• •Before the election, the heads of the two Arab-majority lists told AFP their shared goal was to bring down what they called a "racist" government.
• •The Arab lists have hinted they may endorse Eisenkot.

Within Eisenkot's bloc, the partnership question splits his allies. Yair Golan, the left-leaning leader of the Democrats, has called for a partnership with the Arab lists. Right-winger Avigdor Lieberman, who heads Yisrael Beiteinu, is staunchly opposed to it. Eisenkot's own party appears to have ruled out joining with the Arab lists without saying so explicitly, and the stance of Naftali Bennett's centre-right Together party is unclear.

The road through the presidency

Formal authority now passes to President Isaac Herzog. Under established practice, the president taps the candidate with the most recommendations, weighing party sizes. Netanyahu's far-right allies are expected to put the veteran premier's name forward, as is the ultra-Orthodox Shas party, according to media reports; the other ultra-Orthodox party's position is unclear.

Herzog will hold consultations with party representatives starting Wednesday and has seven days, until November 11, to choose a candidate. The procedural clock then runs as follows:

• •The chosen candidate has 28 days, extendable by 14 days, to form a coalition.
• •Failing that, the president may pick another candidate.
• •If a second attempt fails, a group of 61 lawmakers can ask the president to pick a third candidate; if none succeeds within 14 days, parliament dissolves and new elections are held.

Herzog must therefore name his candidate by November 11, after which that nominee has 28 days - extendable by 14 - to assemble a coalition government before the president may turn to someone else,.