• Analysis
Gulf states peace deal takes shape to avert renewed US-Iran war
Gulf states are working on a multipart peace plan to prevent what they see as a disastrous renewal of war between Iran and the US, with provisions ranging from reopening the Strait of Hormuz within four days of sanctions relief to a Houthi withdrawal inside Yemen.
Gulf states are assembling a multipart peace plan aimed at averting what they regard as a disastrous renewal of war between Iran and the US, while Tehran simultaneously tests a mediator's role in Yemen.
What the plan contains
The plan's provisions on paper are:
- •The Strait of Hormuz would be reopened within four days of economic sanctions being lifted.
- •Iran has signalled flexibility on that timeline: Dr Ali Bagheri, deputy secretary of Iran's national security council, said Tehran was willing to reduce its original proposal of seven days to four.
- •The Houthis would be required to withdraw substantial forces inside Yemen.
Washington waits, Europe points to inspectors
The US is aware of the talks' progress but is holding out for a further concession from Iran before committing. European diplomats believe that concession could involve Iran allowing UN weapons inspectors back into the country to visit its bombed nuclear sites, and they treat such re-entry as a minimum requirement for a breakthrough with Donald Trump.
British foreign secretary Ed Miliband pressed the point directly when he met Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi in New York, urging the Iranians to readmit the inspectors. Iran refused, saying it will only agree in principle to talks on its nuclear programme.
The Yemen track and the wider pact
Iran is beginning to acknowledge a mediating role in the Yemen conflict. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's supreme national security council, met the Houthi ambassador to Iran, Ibrahim al-Dulaimi, on Tuesday. The meeting came just 24 hours after a high-level delegation from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan travelled to Tehran to discuss Saudi terms for ending the Yemen conflict and a longer-term regional security architecture.
The pieces of the Yemen and regional equation currently on the table:
- •Iran backs the Houthis and can influence them, including devising proposals that stop short of a Houthi military victory, which many see as unobtainable.
- •The Houthis demand that Saudi Arabia lift what they regard as a naval and air blockade on territory they hold.
- •Iran kept its nuclear programme off the agenda in the meeting with Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, steering the discussion toward a long-term regional security vision in which the US presence in the Middle East is reduced or ended.
- •A proposed non-aggression pact - a regional security pact - would end Iran's ostracism by the rest of the Gulf, in place since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, meeting Iran's highest strategic goal.
- •A commitment by six Gulf states to that goal could make it easier for Iran to swallow potentially difficult tactical concessions on its nuclear programme.
Oman's case for the deal
Oman's foreign minister Badr Albusaidi, a key advocate of the inclusive security plan, said he believed the US administration understood this was the direction the region is heading. He argued that full Iranian re-engagement among eight countries at peace would bring enormous economic potential to the region and to partners outside it, adding that this was discussed at length during the Iran-US talks and met with general acceptance.
Araghchi, speaking at a televised event in Iran this week, framed the moment as one of looking past the fighting:
Recently, there has been talk of a new war but I am already thinking about the postwar period.
The talks continue, with the US aware of their progress and waiting on a further Iranian concession - one that European diplomats suggest could be readmitting UN weapons inspectors to Iran's bombed nuclear sites.
