A coal supply chain and a silence on fossil fuels

Australia Turkey Cop31 criticism has hardened into a charge: the two hosts are partners in a coal supply chain while remaining near silent on the need for a global deal to move off fossil fuels. A 350.org report, citing UN Comtrade data, found Australian coking and thermal coal supplied to Turkey caused more than 75m tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions since the Paris climate agreement was signed in 2015. The group said the countries are now expanding their trade in liquified natural gas (LNG).

The report sets that trade against the scale each side still commands:

• •Coal and LNG shipments from Australia are expected to be worth more than A$140bn this year; the country remains among the world's biggest exporters of both fuels even as it accelerates its clean energy expansion at home
• •Turkey is Europe's biggest coal-power generator and has signalled it could expand its coal and gas power capacity by about 30% by 2035, the report said
• •Bill Hare, of the science and policy institute Climate Analytics, said the Australian Labor government had approved 37 fossil fuel developments for export since its election in 2022
• •Hare said Turkey under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan seemed "fixated on prioritising digging up and burning coal … and establishing itself as a regional fossil gas hub"

Activists accused the two hosts of a "vacuum of action" on plans for a transition away from coal, gas and oil, a goal many nations pursue at the talks. The 350.org report said the trade continued while the Cop31 presidents largely ignored fossil fuels – the primary cause of the climate crisis – in public comments before the summit. Three letters setting out the summit's mission and expectations – two from the Turkish government and one joint letter with the Australians – did not mention fossil fuels.

Anthony Albanese also did not mention fossil fuels in a keynote speech at Climate Week in New York two weeks ago. Andreas Sieber, 350.org's head of political strategy, said the hosts should follow previous host Brazil in working on a roadmap to accelerate the transition away from dirty fuels, and announce coal phase-out dates as a first step.

Rather than leading the transition away, Sieber added, both countries are still expanding fossil fuels at extreme rates.

A thinned Pacific line-up and a record mine approval

Australia holds the new role of "president of negotiations" at Cop31 and pushed to hold the pre-summit meeting in the Pacific, arguing it would highlight the plight of low-lying island nations. The preparatory meetings this week bring a small group of national leaders, among them Anthony Albanese, together with representatives of more than 50 countries in Fiji and Tuvalu. Few leaders from outside the region accepted, however.

The Fijian government named five expected attendees, though some have since cancelled:

• •Thailand – its prime minister, Anutin Charnvirakul, cancelled as Bangkok suffered severe flooding
• •Antigua and Barbuda
• •Cape Verde
• •The Maldives
• •Timor-Leste

The Pacific meeting falls just days after a New South Wales regulator approved the largest coalmine expansion in the state's history. Joint owners Yancoal and Glencore estimate the 19-year life extension of the Hunter Valley Operations thermal coalmine could lead to 809m tonnes of heat-trapping carbon dioxide emissions if it wins federal approval.

Vanuatu's climate change minister, Ralph Regenvanu, said it would be "deeply disappointing" for Pacific countries if Australia extended the life of a major coalmine while leading the Cop31 negotiations. "This decision sends the wrong signal at a critical time," he said.

The hosts' answers

The Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, said on Sunday that Australia is a fossil fuel-exporting country but that acting on climate change is in its national, economic and strategic interest. Treasury analysis, he said, found the country could have an impact on global emissions by becoming a renewable energy exporter. "Our trading partners are pursuing their own energy transitions. We want to help them do that, so we remain a reliable trading nation," he added.

At previous summits Bowen has argued the world needs to move away from dirty fuels, declaring at the Cop28 conference in Dubai that "the age of fossil fuels will end".

The hosting arrangement itself is unusual. Turkey and Australia share Cop31 duties under an agreement struck after a protracted standoff, with Turkey holding ultimate responsibility, including running a massive green trade fair. Bowen, for his part, has been appointed "president of negotiations" for the formal talks between nearly 200 nations.

The impasse the summit inherits

The talks in Antalya inherit a stalled process. Last year's Cop30 summit in Brazil avoided collapse but managed only a voluntary agreement to begin discussions on a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels, after oil-producing countries opposed stronger wording. Frustration over that impasse prompted 57 national governments to hold a separate conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels in Colombia in April; Turkey and Australia were represented there by senior officials.

Bill Hare, chief executive of the science and policy institute Climate Analytics, said it would be "interesting to see" if Turkey and Australia could set aside their "addiction to fossil fuels".

Cop31 will open amid rising concern about a weather pattern described as a "super El Niño". The UN Environment Programme has warned the world would breach the 1.5C global heating goal included in the Paris agreement, and that every fraction of a degree of temperature rise would intensify destructive extreme weather, glacier melt, ecosystem loss, and island and coastal city submersion, prompting its call for immediate and sustained cuts in emissions.

The fortnight-long Cop31 summit opens in Antalya, on Turkey's Mediterranean coast, in about a month, with Bowen presiding over the formal negotiations between nearly 200 nations.