• Analysis
Bob Carr says Aukus nuclear submarines Australia expects will never arrive from US
Former Labor foreign affairs minister Bob Carr says it is 'conventional wisdom' in Washington and Canberra that the United States will never sell nuclear submarines to Australia under the Aukus deal, which he calls 'living a lie'.
Bob Carr, who served as Australia's foreign affairs minister under Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd, says officials in both Canberra and Washington accept that the US will never build and sell the nuclear submarines Australia is counting on under the Aukus agreement. He made the remarks on Guardian Australia's weekly Australian Politics podcast.
We're living a lie. We're living a platonic lie. It's a diplomatic fig leaf or fiction
Carr was speaking about the $368bn agreement signed in 2021, and his assessment puts him against the Albanese government, which insists the partnership is on track.
Why he thinks the boats won't come
Carr's argument rests on the judgment of a future US president. He says that president would likely conclude that China's military might makes it too difficult for three or more Virginia-class nuclear submarines to be transferred to Australia.
He also points to spending pressures inside defence establishments and to doubts about the technology itself:
- •US navy production delays and cost blowouts have already fed scepticism that Australia will receive in-service boats, and any transfer requires the US president to sign off, subject to American military demand.
- •Defence establishments are aware, in Carr's words, that "we are shovelling such cash into a single defence platform", squeezing other capabilities.
- •He warns the submarine platform could be overtaken by technology, citing lessons from the war in Ukraine.
Rather than handing over boats, Carr expects an alternative: American-operated vessels stationed at bases in Australia.
What Australia has paid so far
The sums already committed under the deal are substantial:
- •More than $3bn has been paid to support US submarine manufacturing, part of promised payments of about $4.6bn over the deal's lifetime.
- •Billions more are going to infrastructure, workforce and construction.
- •The first US Virginia-class submarine is due to arrive in Australia in 2032, with another every four years, before the SSN Aukus model comes online in 2042.
Labor backed the nuclear submarine plan in opposition, after negotiations under the former prime minister Scott Morrison, Joe Biden and Boris Johnson.
Government says Aukus is proceeding
The Albanese government rejects Carr's account. It says Aukus is proceeding as intended and notes that the US president, Donald Trump, has pledged full support. Defence minister Richard Marles said this week that Aukus was "absolutely happening".
Marles framed the project in the largest terms, saying it "represents the biggest industrial project in our country's history" and describing Aukus as the biggest leap in military capability since the navy's establishment more than a century ago, with thousands of hi-tech jobs attached.
Opposition to the deal has also been organised. A crowdfunded public inquiry this month called Aukus "the worst, riskiest and most costly defence decision ever made by an Australian government" and urged its immediate termination.
Led by former Labor MP Peter Garrett and former chief of defence Adm Chris Barrie, it warned that Australia risked being dragged into military conflict with China. The report heard evidence from Carr, former Labor minister Gareth Evans and former Liberal prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, while Linda Reynolds and Christopher Pyne argued in favour of the deal. The government dismissed it.
The government's position remains that the first US Virginia-class submarine is due in Australia in 2032, with transfers still requiring US presidential sign-off.
