Politics
• Analysis
Voters think economy is getting worse, Harris poll finds ahead of midterms
Less than three weeks before the midterm elections, an exclusive Harris poll for the Guardian finds independents, rural voters and some Republicans saying the economy is getting worse, with gas and grocery prices topping their concerns.
By Haut Monde Post
• October 16, 2026
• 3 Min Read
A new economy getting worse poll has picked up a sharp shift among the voters both parties need: 65% of independents said the economy is worse, up from 48% in September 2024, according to an exclusive Harris poll for the Guardian conducted less than three weeks before the midterm elections.
Recession worries and price pressure
The survey found widespread economic anxiety. Three quarters of Americans said they are concerned about a recession, and 61% wrongly believe the US is already experiencing one, which by its typical definition it is not.
Asked what matters most, two-thirds of those polled said gas prices and grocery prices are their most important issues, followed by living expenses, healthcare costs and foreign affairs.
The price data behind those answers:
- •Annualized prices increased 3.7% in September, the highest pre-midterm reading excluding the pandemic since 1990.
- •Average gas prices are about $1.20 more per gallon than a year ago since the Iran war.
- •California drivers pay the highest gas prices, averaging $6.20 per gallon, according to AAA.
- •A vast majority of Americans agreed there is an affordability crisis, including 96% of Republicans.
Republicans and independents sour on the economy
The poll tracks a collapse in Republican optimism. In February 2025, 39% of Republicans said the economy was getting better; that rose to 49% in February 2026, then fell to 28% in the latest poll. Combined with the movement among independents, the survey finds the key voting groups increasingly disenchanted with Donald Trump's economy ahead of the midterms.
Democrats run on affordability
Democratic candidates are building their campaigns around cost-of-living messages. In Texas, Senate candidate James Talarico appears in a campaign ad holding a paper bag of groceries.
"Too many Texans feel like they're drowning, the cost of groceries, gas, healthcare."
The speaker in that ad is Talarico himself. In Michigan, Senate candidate Abdul el-Sayed made a similar point at a campaign event: "My name is not the reason your gas prices are through the roof. My name is not the reason you can't afford your groceries".
Who has a solution, in voters' eyes
Asked which party has answers, voters split along partisan lines:
- •71% of Democrats said their own party has a solution, versus 59% of Republicans who said the same of theirs.
- •26% of Republicans said neither party has a solution, compared with 17% of Democrats.
- •Half of independents said neither party has a solution; 14% sided with Democrats and 10% with Republicans.
- •41% of rural Americans believe neither party has a solution, versus 35% of suburban and 27% of urban Americans.
- •Four in 10 rural Americans said they live in "survival mode", versus 35% of urban and 27% of suburban Americans.
Blame for high prices also split by group. 46% of rural Americans said the US government most affects gas prices, versus 28% of Republicans, who were least likely to blame the government and instead spread blame across oil companies, the Iranian government and natural economic fluctuations.
The Harris Poll surveyed 3,998 US adults online from 24 September to 3 October 2026, using a nationally representative sample. With the midterms less than three weeks away, the poll shows independents and rural voters largely unconvinced either party has answers.
