A six-figure campaign to build consensus

The SNP's push for a second Scottish independence referendum now has a name, a budget and a stated purpose. The campaign is called Choose Scotland, is backed by what the party described as a six-figure war chest, and aims to build the consensus for leaving the union.

• •The campaign's name is Choose Scotland.
• •It is backed by a six-figure war chest.
• •Its stated aim is to build consensus for leaving the union.

Speaking on a Saturday at the SNP conference in Aberdeen, the Scottish first minister said the second referendum campaign for Scottish independence had already begun, and promised the party's most sophisticated campaign in history.

Swinney's message to the conference

In his keynote, Swinney argued the conditions were falling into place for the pro-independence cause, saying the stars were aligning for it. He pointed to nationalist first ministers in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, whom he said had panicked the pro-union parties.

He told delegates that for centuries, people in the Celtic nations have been told that we are not good enough, with their languages derided, cultures suppressed and histories rewritten. Standing alongside pro-independence leaders from Wales and Ireland, he said, had unsettled opponents.

Swinney also told the conference that the nations of the UK were evolving into a new relationship, and that another vote could happen sooner than expected - although he cannot call a second referendum himself.

The arithmetic of a second vote

Leading SNP figures told the conference that a hung Westminster parliament is the most realistic path to securing a second independence referendum, with the SNP likely to hold the balance of power. The party currently holds just eight MPs at Westminster, and recent polling indicates that number would surge at Labour's expense in Scotland, though how many seats it would gain is uncertain.

• •Deputy first minister Jenny Gilruth said the SNP would welcome an early general election to reenergise the push for independence, and that polling suggests it would hold the balance of power in a hung parliament and regain a number of seats.
• •Lara Bird, MP for Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, told The National's podcast the SNP could negotiate another poll if the overall results were tight, and that it is polled at getting somewhere between 40 and 50 MPs at the general election.
• •Bird also raised the possibility of coalition arithmetic, saying: "Perhaps now we are talking about a Lib Dem-Labour coalition," and that the onus should be on Westminster to meet the SNP at the table.

Not every projection is so bullish. Electoral Calculus's latest MRP polling this week predicted a narrow Labour victory, with the SNP winning 28 seats.

Downing Street's response

UK prime minister Andy Burnham visited Lanarkshire on Friday and said the Scottish government needed to move beyond the question of independence. He argued that people in Scotland are suffering the cost of living crisis, like they are in England, and that too much time is wasted on constitutional dramas.

Burnham offered to work more closely on devolving power from Holyrood with Swinney's administration. But the structural fact remains: any second Scottish independence referendum would have to be granted by Westminster.