The andy burnham scotland visit lands on Friday, in the middle of the SNP conference in Aberdeen, in a thinly veiled attempt to overshadow the gathering. John Swinney stands up to address members on Saturday afternoon to reinvigorate the case for a second independence referendum - with the prime minister's shadow hanging over the hall.

A prime minister on Scottish soil

Burnham took over at No 10 in July and has since largely avoided direct confrontations with his political rivals. Scotland is where that changes. Unlike recent British prime ministers, who have often paid little attention to Scottish internal affairs beyond ruling out another referendum, he has decided to take on the SNP by loudly making the case for the union on Scottish soil.

His challenge to the SNP is not only constitutional. His devolution agenda, his openness to exploring a return to the European Union and £2 bus fares are harder for the party to confront. He has already said there is "no clear consensus" for another independence vote.

The personal edge to the visit comes from a prediction Swinney made at a meeting of separatist parties from Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland - the first time all three devolved parliaments were nationalist-governed - that Burnham would be the last UK prime minister. Swinney made the remark on the day Burnham's father died. At the Labour conference, Burnham told delegates:

Swinney's case for a second independence referendum

Swinney's Saturday address in Aberdeen is the set-piece of the conference, and he has said he wants a new vote before 2031. The speech is meant to reinvigorate the case for a second independence referendum after a difficult stretch for the party and for the wider movement.

A rivalry already public

The contest predates the visit. Swinney was the only politician from a rival party, apart from Margaret Thatcher, that Burnham mentioned in his keynote address to the Labour party conference last month.

Within the SNP, some want the fight taken beyond the constitution. Lara Bird, MP for Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, said Burnham is actively and unilaterally opening up the conversation about whether results of referendums can be revisited, while denying Scotland the same democratic principle.

Bird also argued the independence movement is bigger than the SNP and that it is important to build support as broadly as possible, while saying she fundamentally believes the SNP will be the party that secures independence for Scotland.

What the polls and the party numbers say

The scottish polls behind the Burnham union case show a prime minister with unusual cross-over appeal:

• •PF Global polling found 46% of Scots have a favourable view of Burnham, far higher than the Labour party itself and double Keir Starmer's rating when he left power.
• •Only Swinney is more popular than the prime minister among SNP voters who supported yes in 2014 - a level not seen for a Labour leader since Jeremy Corbyn.
• •Ipsos polling found 42% of Scots would feel happy about the SNP-led Scottish government working with London, up 12 points since May when Starmer was in charge.
• •Just over half of Scots believe the country is going in the wrong direction, up six points in the same time period.

The SNP arrives in Aberdeen hoping to draw a line under a bruising few years after Nicola Sturgeon's resignation and the subsequent fraud conviction of her estranged husband, former SNP chair Peter Murrell. Murrell is serving a five-year prison sentence for embezzling £400,000 from the party, and a proceeds of crime case against him is scheduled for early December. Sturgeon, in the opening to her memoir, criticised a "lack of vision or big picture thinking" in the campaign; Swinney said the two remain good friends.

The arithmetic at Holyrood is also less comfortable than the party's electoral record suggests. In May, the SNP won a fifth successive election, but only enough to form a minority government. Reform has as many MSPs as Labour in Holyrood with 17, the Scottish Greens won a record 15 seats, and the Tories defeated the SNP in Aberdeen South in June.

Other voices will share the platform. Sioned Williams, deputy first minister of Wales, will give a fraternal address on Friday, and Gillian Mackay, a Scottish Green party MSP, will speak at a panel about the right pathway to independence on Saturday.

Swinney addresses members in Aberdeen on Saturday afternoon, with Burnham expected in Scotland the day before.