Politics
• Analysis
Tories' net zero cost figure overstated by nearly £500bn in spreadsheet error
Kemi Badenoch's Conservative conference policy document overstated the net zero cost by nearly £500bn, apparently after figures were double-counted on a spreadsheet. The claim appeared repeatedly in her main conference speech in Birmingham.
By Haut Monde Post
• October 9, 2026
• 2 Min Read
What the document claimed
The error sits in the net zero chapter of The Right Way, a 100-page policy document produced for the Conservative conference in Birmingham. Badenoch repeatedly used the claim in her main speech.
The chapter underpins the party's case for scrapping the UK's target of reaching net zero emissions by 2050, a target introduced under Theresa May. The document attributes the figures to the Climate Change Committee's Sixth Carbon Budget:
- •It claims that in 2020 the CCC estimated its route to net zero would cost £957bn
- •It says the CCC report put gross economic costs at £1.4tn, falling to £957bn when savings were taken into account
- •The document is framed as a precise diagnosis of the UK's problems
Where the £500bn gap came from
The CCC report's figures in fact total £478bn - half the sum the Conservative document claimed. The discrepancy appears to stem from a spreadsheet error: a tally of costs in the CCC's spreadsheet also counted the row showing totals for each individual column, doubling the figure.
Carbon Brief spotted the error and informed the Guardian. The CCC's own most recent analysis puts the expected cost of achieving net zero by 2050 at about £110bn, or roughly £4bn a year - 0.2% of GDP.
The Climate Change Committee responds
A CCC spokesperson said the committee did not recognise the number:
"We don't recognise this number. The committee has previously offered to meet with Ms Badenoch and talk her through our advice."
The committee said that offer remains open.
Possible origin of the figure
The Conservatives may have copied the figure without checking. The overstated sum appears to have been published in a report by the rightwing thinktank the Institute of Economic Affairs and also included in an article in the Spectator.
The Conservatives and Badenoch's office were contacted for comment.
