The nasty party warning

The better mood has not silenced the sceptics inside the party. Some Tories fear that Kemi Badenoch's single-minded pursuit of the supporters Nigel Farage has taken from her, and the near-nothing she offers centrist voters in exchange, carries political and reputational risks for a party hoping this Conservative party conference shows it has changed. The worry has sharpened as the political landscape fractures and Reform UK rises as a new competitor on the right.

An unnamed shadow minister made the electoral point bluntly: the Conservatives need to attract as many of the voters who left for the Liberal Democrats as those who went to Reform UK, and at present that balance is not right. Voters, the minister added, do not want the party intolerant on social issues - and on its current course it risks being seen as the nasty party again.

The label has history. Theresa May coined it in 2002 when, as party chair, she warned activists against too narrow a voter base and punitive policies. On the comparison now being drawn, Badenoch has learned to prioritise core policy and to walk away from culture war arguments, but she has not fully absorbed May's lesson about not punching down.

In recent weeks, three pledges have sharpened that concern:

• •barring non-Britons from social housing
• •stripping UK citizenship from dual nationals convicted of serious crimes
• •cutting some benefits payments to a restricted subsistence level that could not be spent on alcohol or tobacco

Prosper UK's centrist case

The centrist case is being made loudest from outside parliament. Public dissent often comes from Prosper UK, a grouping launched earlier this year by Andy Street, the former West Midlands mayor, and Ruth Davidson, who previously led the Scottish Conservatives. Among its vice-chairs sits David Gauke, a cabinet minister in May's government.

Gauke's argument is that Badenoch must pay more attention to the "politically homeless" moderate Tories who helped the Liberal Democrats take dozens of seats across southern England in 2024. One section of the electorate, he said, does not feel the party has spoken to it for at least 10 years. The arithmetic, in his view, allows no other path:

Why the internal fight never comes

Open dissent has been scarce under Badenoch - even on the commitment to leave the European Convention on Human Rights so that deportations can be pursued more rigorously. Many of her MPs respect the time she takes over decisions and the way she argues her case; the ECHR plan was fronted by a 185-page report from the shadow attorney general, David Wolfson.

The quiet also reflects the weakness of the party's centre. The Conservatives who might push back are mostly gone from the scene: outside parliament, lying low on the backbenches, or folded into the Badenoch project - as with Tom Tugendhat, made shadow foreign secretary in a recent mini-reshuffle.

One centrist MP recalled that the One Nation group never achieved anything concrete, amounting to little more than occasional displays of solidarity. Now, the same MP said, the party pulls together with evident purpose: no factions are left and the arguments are at an end.

History plays its part. Last year's conference was widely seen as make or break for a leader who had begun shakily, and it was overshadowed when Robert Jenrick, then shadow justice secretary, was accused of amplifying toxic nationalism after complaining about "not seeing another white face" in part of Birmingham. Sacked by Badenoch for plotting against her, Jenrick defected to Reform UK three months later.

A shadow minister traces the present unity to that departure: the party is very unified, much of which coincided with Jenrick going, and its toxicity has been outsourced to Reform UK. A year ago, the minister noted, Reform UK and Keir Starmer were both describing the Conservatives as dead or irrelevant, and the minister credits Badenoch with a lot of cut-through.

Not every Tory accepts the warning's premise. Another unnamed MP said no colleagues worry about the nasty party criticism, while many constituents say they are very worried about welfare costs.

The scepticism and the numbers behind it

Outside the party, the strategy attracts outright doubt. Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary, University of London, read Badenoch's calculation as an attempt to stop Reform UK running riot, then hope that Reform UK implodes and Andy Burnham's government slumps. He judged the approach a risk and cannot see how it works or where the votes would come from. The Conservatives, he added, overstate how highly voters regard their leader.

Inside the party, the consensus is that Badenoch is doing well, and she is feted by Tory MPs for how she performs in the Commons. Voters' descriptions of her are less warm: they commonly call her strong, but also mean and cold. Her net favourability score with YouGov has climbed by 20 points and still sits at minus 15.

One MP drew the line between mood and numbers: the mood is better, but the facts are still very poor. Badenoch was elected leader almost two years before this conference, and her party still polls below its 2024 level, the year of its catastrophically poor election result.

For now, Badenoch's position as leader is safe. The MP who senses a better mood calls it overhyped all the same: the Conservatives remain a distant third in the polls, and would lose heavily if an election were held tomorrow.