A year after the coup talk

Twelve months ago, Tory MPs were braced for another leadership battle to topple Kemi Badenoch. The Conservatives sat at historic lows of 14-16% in the polls, and rebels had identified November as the decisive month to mount a challenge, by which point Badenoch would have served 12 months in office.

• •The Conservatives have since crept up from the teens to the low 20s in the polls.
• •They have occasionally edged ahead of Reform UK for the first time in almost two years.
• •Badenoch returns to conference in a far stronger position than she was twelve months earlier.

What has followed, against expectations, is a "Keminisation" of the Tories, with Badenoch asserting her style and authority despite the party's wider poor polling.

Better numbers, still a damaged brand

Luke Tryl, director of the More in Common thinktank, which conducts focus groups and polling, said the Conservatives' improved poll ratings were not great but a lot better. The party brand, in his view, remains the problem, while Badenoch herself is at present the only thing holding the Conservatives up.

• •More in Common: Badenoch is now net neutral in its approval ratings and has been net 1 or net 2, having previously been in the minus 30s; Tryl says only she and Burnham now have positive approval in the thinktank's ratings.
• •Opinium: James Crouch, the pollster's head of policy and public affairs, said Badenoch's approval rating had been rising since May 2025, when she stood at -27, to -3 in its latest poll; among 2024 Conservative voters, 64% approve against 8% who do not, while among 2019 Conservative voters 56% approved and 16% did not.
• •ConservativeHome: the most recent poll gives Badenoch an 87% net satisfaction rating with the party faithful.
• •YouGov: research published this week found four in 10 people used at least one negative term to describe Badenoch, with perceived unpleasantness among the most common themes; three in 10 used one or more positive terms, with "strong" and "intelligent" the main compliments.

The limits are still clear. Badenoch leads a party widely discounted by much of the electorate as toxic and incompetent, though polling and focus groups suggest some voters have recently begun giving her more of a hearing. Tryl said progressives do not like her, but people who might conceivably be Tory voters often like her while disliking the party, and describe her as telling it like it is. The "Kemi bounce", he added, is real, with people citing her improvement and having seen her PMQs clips.

How the year turned

Some Tory MPs attribute Badenoch's improvement over the last year to a willingness to learn and take advice on her performance. Her prime minister's questions appearances have improved, partly with help on preparation from Conservative grandees such as David Cameron. Insiders say she has listened to warnings that she should concentrate more on the economy and less on culture war talking points, a shift reflected in the party's conference slogan, set as "Stronger economy, stronger country".

• •Tory MPs see a turning point in Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman defecting to Reform, because their departure removed a source of destabilisation on the right.
• •Jenrick's departure also gave Badenoch an opportunity to show decisiveness, pushing him before he jumped.
• •Badenoch has been aided by increasing questions over Nigel Farage and Reform UK's finances, with Reform's dominance in the polls slipping.

Badenoch's own accounting of the year is more forgiving. She claimed to the FT this weekend that she could not think of any mistakes she had made, saying everyone makes them but "nothing comes to mind".

Burnham raises the bar

One reason the bar has risen sits across the chamber: the arrival of Andy Burnham on the scene for Labour has changed things. Giles Kenningham, a former Conservative director of communications who now leads the Trafalgar Strategy advisory firm, said Burnham raises the bar as a great communicator who is comfortable in his own skin. For Badenoch, he argued, the task is a harder ask now, because Starmer was not a great orator or someone who electrified voters.

Burnham has had a great conference, Kenningham said, but "all eyes are now on the budget" - which, in his view, means Badenoch's conference needs to be on the economy and welfare. He added that John Healey's speech didn't say anything and that there is an opportunity for Badenoch to put pressure on Labour and drive the agenda.

Not yet secure

The turnaround remains conditional. A number of Conservative aides and insiders believe Badenoch's future is still not totally secure unless the party creeps above Reform UK on a sustained basis. One insider said she is ultimately not immune from a challenge, noting that the shelf life of politicians is getting shorter and shorter, leaders are much more exposed and the job is precarious. The next step is her conference pitch on the economy and welfare, under the "Stronger economy, stronger country" slogan [F24, F33].