Inside the warnings

With the budget set for 28 October, scepticism inside Labour is hardening. One Labour MP warned that if voters are not better off by the next election, the party is 'screwed', and dismissed the plans as 'a Reeves budget with better vibes'. A No 10 aide framed the stakes in similar terms, calling the budget 'a moment of peak attention and potentially peak peril' and saying the government must level with people that it cannot fix everything at once.

Treasury insiders accept the need to 'kickstart' longer-term changes but concede that a low-key statement deferring big decisions may not satisfy the public. One aide put it bluntly: 'The budget will be our first punch in the face moment'.

The arithmetic behind the unease is the sticking point. One adviser questioned how the plans add up at all, saying it is impossible to see how anyone can square the additional spending needed given the tightness of the fiscal envelope. Another insider doubted the value of repeating the message that the party wants to do more but is constrained, saying: 'I don't know how convinced I am about giving people essentially the same message as before'.

Everyday fixes and the cost of living push

Downing Street's answer is a programme of 'everyday fixes': small cost of living measures overseen by the No 10 policy unit and the Cabinet Office's cost of living taskforce, with 'incubators' in each department to generate ideas. Planned measures include rules around car-parking apps and unbranded school uniforms.

Strategists say the approach is landing online:

• •The everyday fixes gained 85m views across all social platforms in one week.
• •More measures will be announced in the run-up to Healey's budget on 28 October.

The government is also pushing a broader theme - that it is trying to improve lives despite a difficult economic backdrop - at a cabinet away day at Chequers on Monday and a meeting for special advisers on Thursday. No 10 insight work shows people were still prepared to accept the Iran conflict as an explanation for hardship rather than an excuse.

The £12bn hole and a low-key budget

The fiscal backdrop constrains all of it. Inflation and soaring borrowing costs linked to the Iran war are thought to have blown a £12bn hole in the public finances, forcing consideration of tax rises and spending cuts.

The budget itself is expected to be 'low key', focusing on fiscal devolution, a household support package centred on cutting energy bills and more help for small businesses, while next year's spending review would need more revenue. At the Chequers away day, Healey told colleagues the government is being honest about pressures and taking practical action wherever possible to give people some breathing space at the budget.

Burnham's role and what comes next

Andy Burnham's standing has grown since the party's conference, where he set out his vision on social care, the pensions triple lock, the EU and electoral reform, with polling suggesting the 'Burnham bounce' had continued. Party insiders have since circulated a More in Common word cloud of phrases voters most associate with him, in which the word 'trying' featured prominently and caught strategists' attention.

At the Chequers away day, Burnham told ministers politics had become too suffocating and that the country needs greater ambition and a longer-term plan. A government source described 'a bit of friction' between the prime minister's office and the Treasury over balancing fiscal responsibility with hope.

Downing Street expects the days after the budget to be 'bumpy' but is optimistic Burnham's communication skills and public goodwill will help. One source said the party will take a hit over the budget and faces a tough couple of weeks, but hopes a 10-year plan will let it enter next year with public trust in Burnham.

When parliament returns from conference recess on Monday, Burnham will give a statement updating MPs on the past few weeks and taking questions.