Older Americans could see their retirement payments fall by an average of $2,152 a year each - an 8.6% reduction - in 2034 and every year thereafter, according to a new study titled Economic Impacts of Trump Administration Immigration Policy. The report was commissioned by America's Voice and conducted by Economic Insights and Research Consulting, and it ties the projected social security cuts directly to the departure of 1.2 million foreign-born workers over the last two years, which the authors attribute to Donald Trump's immigration policies.

The retirement bill for a smaller workforce

The mechanism behind the projected benefits reduction is payroll taxation. Unauthorized immigrants paid an estimated $26bn in payroll taxes, and the federal government risks losing part of that sum; the report notes that these workers support social security without accessing its benefits.

The figures the report puts forward include:

• •A reduction of 8.6% in projected average annual social security benefits in 2034, and every year thereafter
• •An average annual loss of $2,152 per elderly American
• •An estimated $26bn in payroll taxes from unauthorized immigrants now at risk

Fewer workers, fewer jobs

The report estimates that the US labor force shrank by 919,000 people during 18 months of Trump's second term, while job growth slowed to roughly a third of its prior rate. By September 2025, less than nine months into the term, native-born workers had lost an estimated 51,000 to 297,000 jobs as a result of the immigration policy changes.

The system's trustees have sounded their own warning. Social security trustees - including treasury secretary Scott Bessent, HHS secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr, labor secretary Keith Sonderling and commissioner Frank Bisignano - say lower net immigration than expected is threatening worse finances for the retirement benefits system, and that benefit cuts may be required.

Prices, housing and local economies

The study also tracks costs outside the pension system. In the 19 months after Trump returned to office in January 2025, prices for immigrant-reliant foods rose faster than groceries overall: fresh whole milk was up 5.7%, canned vegetables up 6.3% and apples up 7.2%.

Housing findings include:

• •In states more dependent on immigrant labor, costs for new single-family homes rose 10.9% in 2026 versus the first eight months of 2024, from an average of $305,752 to $338,752
• •Issuance of single-family housing permits dropped 10.6% nationwide since January 2025, with steeper declines in regions reliant on foreign-born workers
• •Native-born workers in California, Nevada, New Jersey, Florida and New York are losing potential income as construction employment declines alongside the loss of immigrant labor

Report author Robert Lynch said the trend in prices for immigrant-dependent goods moved from lower to higher inflation after the immigration policy changed. "So the trend was reversed, and that was quite striking," he said.

The report also identifies severe labor shortages in healthcare, including home health care, nursing homes and adult daycare, as well as lawn care, landscaping and groundskeeping.

What the authors expect next

Michael Ettlinger, one of the report's authors, said the data undercuts the case made for the policies. "Turns out that refutes what the US president primarily is asserting," he said. Ettlinger added that construction work requires skills and that replacing long-tenured immigrant workers will take time; "And we're losing people who have been here for decades working in construction," he said.

Vanessa Cárdenas, executive director of America's Voice, said the impacts of the policies will be long-lasting. "And I think that is by design," she said.

The authors told the Guardian that if the immigration agenda continues, they would expect higher prices, more job losses, slower economic growth and the affordability crisis getting worse. The projected benefits reduction, they reported, would apply in 2034 and every year thereafter.