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OpenAI revenue forecast cut by $20bn, now projected at $50bn
OpenAI now projects about $20bn less in revenue than it had recently indicated to investors, telling them its revenues for this year would reach $50bn (£37bn) based on sales to the end of September.
By Haut Monde Post
• October 9, 2026
• 3 Min Read
OpenAI's revised revenue forecast has cut about $20bn from the figure it gave investors only weeks ago, and the news moved the ai stock market on Thursday. The company now projects revenues for this year of $50bn (£37bn), a projection based on sales up to the end of September.
A $20bn gap against last month's signal
The $50bn openai revenue forecast is significantly less than the $70bn that OpenAI had signalled to investors last month. The company is therefore making about $20bn less in projected revenue than it had recently indicated to the same investors.
Tech stocks slip on the news
News of the $20bn gap buffeted US tech stocks on Thursday, with the tech-led Nasdaq closing down by 1.4%. Several major names fell sharply after the news:
- •Nvidia fell 2.9%
- •Oracle was down 5.5%
- •Micron declined 4.8%
How Anthropic counts revenue differently
The revision drew immediate comparisons with Anthropic, maker of Claude, which hit $65bn in forecast annualised revenue by the end of July. The discrepancy between the two rivals comes down to accounting: Anthropic includes the revenue from sales via cloud partners, such as Amazon's AWS and Google Cloud, while OpenAI does not.
Anthropic's numbers have also been matched by fresh capital. Two months after OpenAI's March round, Anthropic announced it had raised $65bn, valuing the company at $965bn, and it is expected to push ahead with plans for an initial public offering (IPO) as soon as next month.
Funding backdrop and the IPO question
The reduced openai revenue forecast lands while the company is in early-stage talks to raise $30bn in a funding round that values the business at about $1.4tn. Its most recent fundraising was in March, when it closed a $122bn round of finance at a valuation of $852bn.
SoftBank has aggressively pivoted toward AI, including making a $65bn investment in OpenAI. Last month the Japanese investment company raised $11.1bn in the largest high-yield corporate bond sale globally on record, paying investors yields as high as 9.75%. Its founder, Masayoshi Son, is also seeking to raise up to $100bn from Gulf states, with talks including the United Arab Emirates.
Despite the appetite for its shares, Sam Altman, the chief executive of OpenAI, said last month that the company would not float on the stock market this year. OpenAI remains in early-stage talks to raise $30bn in a round valuing the business at about $1.4tn, while Altman has said the company will not float on the stock market this year.
