SocioMetrica projects around 200 seats for PP and Vox

The largest spain seat projection comes from SocioMetrica, published by El Español, which puts the PP and Vox combined at around 200 of the 350 lower-house seats. The Socialists would secure 108 seats, two more than in the previous survey.

The poll's method points explain the spread:

• •5,460 online interviews
• •a 3 percentage point margin of error built into the projections
• •a net transfer of 832,000 voters from left to right

Other pollsters see a narrower gap

A 40dB poll for El Pais measured the gap between the PP and the Socialists at just two percentage points, though the combined right-wing bloc still reached a working majority of around 190 seats.

Sigma Dos, polling for El Mundo, put the Socialists on 105 seats - recovering ground lost after the train crash - against 199 seats for the PP and Vox.

Loyalty shifts and the campaign's opening themes

IMOP, polling for El Confidencial, looked at vote transfers rather than seats: it recorded a drop in voter loyalty for the Socialists and a rise for the PP, the latter largely at the expense of Vox supporters.

The campaign, starting four days after the report, was expected to be dominated by housing, immigration and corruption, along with reverberations from last month's deadly train crash that triggered the resignation of Transport Minister Oscar Puente.

Sanchez's left flank weakens

Pedro Sanchez, in power since 2018, called the snap election on October 5 after right-wing parties voted down emergency legislation over the housing crisis.

A problem for the Socialists' coalition math is the weakness of their partners on the hard left, who were unable to agree on a common list of candidates last month. Polls show the Broad Front poised to win 10 to 15 seats, while its rival on the hard left, Podemos, is at risk of losing its parliamentary representation.

The campaign was set to open four days after the report, with voters going to the polls on November 29.