• Analysis
Cop31 climate summit: Marshall Islands president warns 'the world we know is over' without urgent climate action
Marshall Islands president Hilda Heine warned leaders at the Cop31 climate summit in Turkey on Wednesday that the response to 1.5C overshoot 'must be overwhelming, or the world we know is over'. Her address came on day three of the conference during a leaders' gathering attended by 91 national leaders.
A bleached reef at home
Speaking at the Cop31 climate summit in Turkey on day three of the conference, Hilda Heine told the leaders' gathering what overshooting the 1.5C Paris temperature target would mean: waves eating away at shores, and floods that destroy towns, schools and hospitals. Small island nations such as hers face an existential threat from rising sea levels and are among the countries most exposed to catastrophe beyond 1.5C of heating.
"Our response to the threat of overshoot must be overwhelming, or the world we know is over."
She grounded the warning in what she had seen at home: coral that was bright and lush beneath the water of her home island in July had been bleached white just months later.
Mottley: a debt of heat
Barbados prime minister Mia Mottley accused governments of not trying hard enough to curb emissions since the Paris agreement. Citing UN figures, she said that even if every pledge is delivered the world is heading for 2.6 degrees, rising to 2.8 degrees on current policies.
"It is a debt, a debt of heat, borrowed against our children's future. And it must be repaid."
Guterres takes aim at fossil fuels
UN secretary general António Guterres blamed a deceitful fossil fuel industry and countries that keep expanding fossil fuel production while claiming to be committed to 1.5C. In one of the last speeches he will deliver as secretary general before he stands down next month, he said:
"Fossil fuels must go the way of the dinosaurs"
- •He added that dinosaurs had no lobby, but fossil fuels do.
- •He called for governments to tax the windfall profits oil and gas companies have made from the Iran war, saying polluters must pay.
- •Quoted directly: "It's time for governments to tax these windfall profits and use them to help vulnerable countries recover."
New oilfields and the island view
Heine's warning carried a pointed echo in her host country. On the Monday before her address, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan celebrated the discovery of two new oilfields with an estimated in-situ potential of 135 million barrels. At the summit itself, Erdoğan said he wants Cop31 remembered as a turning point, warning that every minute spent failing to meet the Paris targets grows the risks and costs.
Heine did not name any producer, but told the gathering that every new oil well drilled and every piece of coal extracted was a threat to her country's future.
"The discovery of new fossil fuel resources is not something to celebrate but something to fear."
Overshoot now seen as inevitable
The UN Environment Programme has found that overshooting 1.5C is now inevitable, and has warned that its effects on icy regions will be so calamitous they should be kept as brief and low as possible. Climate scientist Bill Hare, chief executive of Climate Analytics, said the mood among scientists is gradually darkening.
"The mood is gradually darkening among scientists. In fact, people talk about feeling as though things have gone backwards."
The world is passing the 1.5C limit and entering the teeth of one of the strongest El Niño events, with little sign of progress on phasing out fossil fuels at the talks. Almost every country at Cop31 is lagging in cutting emissions, and finance for the nations most vulnerable remains insufficient as the negotiations continue.
