Politics
• Analysis
Burnham to pass law to scrap pension triple lock before next election
Prime Minister Andy Burnham intends to pass legislation during this parliament to scrap pension triple lock protections, the government says, even though the guarantee stays in place until 2030. Announced in his conference speech, the change would adjust the earnings element so wage spikes no longer trigger much larger pension increases.
By Haut Monde Post
• October 2, 2026
• 3 Min Read
What the lock guarantees and what would change
Andy Burnham used his conference speech as prime minister to announce a change to the state pension triple lock. How it works, and what would change:
- •The state pension rises each year by the highest of 2.5%, inflation or earnings growth — the triple lock guarantee.
- •Under the planned change, the earnings element would be adjusted so that years when wages spike no longer bring much larger pension increases.
A law before the next election
The government says Burnham intends to legislate during this parliament to scrap the pension triple lock, even though the guarantee will stay in place until 2030. In his speech he said the lock would hold until 2030 — a date after the next election — which keeps Labour's manifesto promise intact.
But guidance published alongside the speech points to legislation before that date, which would put the changes to a vote of MPs.
The savings, by the government's count and the Resolution Foundation's
The government estimates the adjustment would cut state pension spending by £15bn a year by the end of the 2030s, reaching £50bn a year by 2050. The Resolution Foundation said on Friday that the savings are extremely difficult to estimate, ranging from nothing to about £24bn a year depending on which recent decade is the model. Its chief executive, Ruth Curtice, wrote on Friday:
"The adjusted triple lock saves most in a volatile world, and so saves nothing in the 90s or 00s, and £24bn in the 10s"
Over the longer term, she wrote, the new mechanism should trend closer to earnings. That, she added, gives a new, if not the main, reason to fight stagnant wages. But she warned that if real earnings growth permanently disappoints, even the protections in the new mechanism could prove expensive.
The care service plan — and the backlash
Burnham told the conference the triple lock would be ended and the savings directed into a national care service in England, free at the point of use. The new system is expected to follow the Scottish model, covering care costs but not accommodation. Millions of pensioners, he argued, would still end up better off and would gain from the new care system. And he promised that lower-income pensioners would be exempt from income tax during this parliament.
- •Criticism has come from the Conservatives, Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats — though some Tory and Lib Dem MPs fault their own leaders for campaigning to keep a policy they see as too costly.
- •YouGov polling suggests voters support Burnham's plan by 48% to 28%.
Sharon Graham, the Unite general secretary, warned earlier this week that removing the pension triple lock to help fund social care changes would be "electoral suicide".
The next step is that vote of MPs, planned before 2030; after it, each party will campaign on a manifesto that either keeps Labour's change or promises to repeal it.
