What the committee found

MPs on the defence select committee say the Royal Navy Russian threat picture in the high north is being worsened by shortfalls in the number and availability of warships and submarines, leaving Britain at risk of failing to deter future Russian aggression there. Their evidence includes the slow deployment of HMS Dragon to Cyprus this spring, a falling count of frigates, and reports that all five Astute-class attack submarines were in dock over the summer.

Committee chair Tan Dhesi said the UK lacks the capabilities it needs for the region. "The UK needs to be willing to address a hard truth: it does not currently have all the capabilities to operate successfully in the high north," he said, adding that public records of how rarely destroyers, frigates and attack submarines are available at sea raise doubts about Britain's ability to honour its commitments.

Why the high north matters

The high north - the seas beyond Scotland - has grown in strategic importance as Russia shows interest in energy pipelines and undersea cables while Arctic seaways open through global heating.

• •The Royal Navy tracked the Russian spy ship Yantar when it operated within the UK's economic waters in November and again in January last year; the ministry accused its crew of attempting to chart strategic cables and of directing lasers at RAF pilots monitoring the vessel.
• •Moscow seeks to assert control over the northern sea route, a 3,500-mile (5,600km) shipping lane along its Arctic coast. It is the quickest maritime route from China to Europe and last year was passable for four and a half months.

Gaps in ships and submarines

The committee set out the numbers behind its warning. When a drone struck an RAF base in Cyprus in March, no warships were available: HMS Dragon had to be hauled out of dry dock, and the destroyer still needed more than three weeks to reach the eastern Mediterranean.

• •The navy has five frigates with sonar dedicated to detecting Russian submarines at distance, below a target of eight, and it could take until 2037 to reach the stated requirement.
• •None of the five Astute-class submarines, used to track Russian maritime activity, were at sea from June into the summer; they were in dock for short-term and long-term refits. Unlike Russian equivalents, they cannot operate under ice, though certification exercises are in progress.

The MPs also flagged a Nato-level risk. There would be critical military gaps if the United States were not involved in countering Russian aggression, they said - a cross-party warning that American backing under Donald Trump may not be counted on, especially if a small Nato member in the region came under threat or attack. The UK, the next largest Nato military in the region, therefore had to be prepared to increase its navy.

Money and the MoD response

No significant extra money is expected for defence until the next decade, with Andy Burnham's government committed to the medium-term spending plans agreed under Keir Starmer. Starmer agreed to lift UK defence spending by about £30bn a year to 3.5% of GDP in 2035 but signed off spending only to 2.7% by 2030, prompting John Healey's resignation as defence secretary; Healey returned as chancellor under Burnham with the old plans intact.

An MoD spokesperson highlighted a recent £330m investment to protect undersea infrastructure, and noted that Wes Streeting, now the defence secretary, visited Iceland this month and watched HMS St Albans, a frigate, track Russian submarines in the north Atlantic. "We are clear-eyed about the threat Russia poses," the spokesperson said.

The committee asked the Ministry of Defence to produce a plan that puts more warships and submarines at sea by 2030.