• Analysis
Shabana Mahmood immigration plans put 200,000 asylum applicants on 30-year settlement path, Refugee Council says
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has been accused by the Refugee Council of causing distress and uncertainty by quietly dropping a guarantee that about 200,000 successful asylum applicants could apply for indefinite leave to remain after five years, in immigration plans announced on Monday.
What the new plans change
Under the proposals Mahmood set out on Monday - some of which softened rules for care workers and their families after unions, cabinet members and backbench Labour MPs voiced concerns - a cohort of about 200,000 people who were told they could apply for settlement after five years will instead face reviews of their status every 30 months.
The asylum settlement 30-year wait applies to those who reach the UK by irregular means:
- •Refugees who arrive irregularly, by small boat for example, face a 30-year wait for settlement in the UK
- •Core protection status comes with an initial 30 months of permission to stay, which must then be renewed
- •Refugee status can be revoked if a person's home country is deemed safe
The dropped five-year guarantee
In March the government reassured asylum claimants with applications already submitted that they would be able to apply for settlement in the UK after five years. An explanatory memo that month said adults and children granted five years' leave from asylum claims or submissions made by 1 March 2026 would remain eligible to apply for settlement after five years.
That guarantee has now gone, according to the Refugee Council, in the small print of the latest plan released on Monday. Footnote 14 of the Home Office document 'A fairer pathway to settlement' states: "Those refugees, not on safe and legal routes, who claimed asylum before 2 March 2026 will move to Core Protection."
The contrast is with last year's consultation, which proposed a 10-year penalty for people who arrived irregularly - a penalty not expected to apply to those already granted refugee status.
Mahmood's earlier reassurance
The Refugee Council's charge rests in part on the home secretary's own words. On 21 November 2025 she posted an image of the white cliffs of Dover on X saying: "Illegal entrants who are not refugees will face a 30-year wait for settlement."
The House of Commons library cited that post as evidence that only non-refugees who secured their visa after illegal entry or overstaying would take up to 30 years.
The criticism and the response
Jon Featonby, the Refugee Council's chief policy analyst, said: "Keeping changing positions on what refugees should expect will cause distress and huge uncertainty." He added that it is impossible to expect people to start new lives while living with a temporary status that expires every 30 months for 30 years.
- •Thousands of refugees who thought they were weeks or months from settlement could now wait another 25 years, Featonby said
- •He warned the plans will cause chaos for the Home Office, which faces decades of repeated extra applications to process at enormous cost to the public purse
The Home Office said there had been no policy change since last year's proposals, but declined to comment on Mahmood's X post or the footnote.
Mahmood told MPs on Monday: "The right to live in the UK for ever will no longer be granted to migrants almost automatically after five years." Under the new earned settlement model set out before parliament, indefinite leave to remain will instead have to be earned.
Keeping changing positions on what refugees should expect will cause distress and huge uncertainty.
- Jon Featonby, the Refugee Council's chief policy analyst
