Nigel Farage's rivals are gearing up for a possible farage byelection clacton contest in the months ahead, amid speculation that the standards inquiry into his £5m gift is nearing a conclusion. Westminster is poised for a battle over the future of Reform if the sanction imposed is heavy, according to sources cited in the report.

Conservatives ready but divided on Clacton

Conservative sources said the party was ready to fight in Farage's seat, but senior figures in the shadow cabinet are divided about whether it would be winnable. The divergence inside the party extends to Farage's own intentions.

One shadow cabinet minister said: "There's a question of whether he will stand again."

There is a precedent for that hope: neither Margaret Ferrier nor Peter Bone contested their seats after their cases, and Conservatives are hopeful that Farage could decide not to fight.

A wider field than August

Farage won a byelection in the seat over the summer, but the field could look different if a fresh contest is called. Other parties, including the hard-right Restore Britain, are expected to stand candidates this time after boycotting the August poll.

• •Farage won the byelection against independent candidates including Count Binface by more than 11,000 votes.

• •At the last general election he won a majority of 8,000, beating the sitting Tory MP Giles Watling.

• •Watling had previously won the seat with a majority of more than 25,000 in 2019, when there was no Brexit party candidate standing.

What could force the vote

The inquiry began after it was revealed in May that the crypto-billionaire Christopher Harborne had given Farage £5m just before the last election in 2024. The Reform leader has said it was a personal matter, not political, and that the money did not need to be declared. The rules state financial support related to an MP's job must be registered if given in the 12 months before they enter parliament.

If a serious breach is found, the process that follows could be lengthy:

• •The commissioner will pass a memorandum to the standards committee of MPs and lay members, which can hold further discussions, call a further hearing or invite evidence from the MP before deciding a penalty - a process that can take weeks.

• •The MP has a right of appeal to the independent expert panel, which can take a further month or more.

• •If parliament agrees to a penalty of more than 10 days' suspension, a recall petition could be held, requiring signatures from 10% of voters in the MP's constituency over a period of six weeks.

The vote could theoretically happen before Christmas if a decision is imminent, but previous case timelines suggest next year is more likely if a serious sanction is imposed. In the cases of Margaret Ferrier and Peter Bone, it took well over six months from the conclusion of the commissioner's report for a byelection to take place.

Reform's preparations

Reform sources insisted Farage would fight for his seat again. He has recently toured the country to shore up core support and reorganised his party HQ, including launching a new Reform TV channel to pump out the party's message direct to voters. The channel involves hiring a team of 12 "journalists" headed by the former GB News producer Aaron Lobo, who had been director of operations.