A long meeting and little else

The Ed Davey leadership challenge that Westminster watchers had predicted failed to appear at the gathering of Liberal Democrat MPs, which brought a few minor grumbles but little else. The lengthy meeting took place in a Commons committee room on Tuesday evening.

One attender said the low-key atmosphere had gone beyond even their lowered expectations: "I had expected a damp squib. It was damper than I thought". Another MP described irritation at being kept so long for so little, complaining that members were forced to sit through a very long meeting in which, in the main, everyone aggressively agreed with each other.

Maynard's resignation fizzles out

The backdrop was the sudden resignation a week earlier of Charlie Maynard, the number two in the party's Treasury team, who quit over concerns that the Liberal Democrats are failing to cut through with voters. His move did not trigger a wider revolt. One MP said it felt like he was trying to light the touchpaper, but it fizzled out instead of exploding.

The verdict from colleagues was blunt. One said Maynard had messed it up and had zero political nous.

Why Davey is safe

Davey's position rests on results and arithmetic. He led the Liberal Democrats to 72 MPs at the 2024 election, the party's best performance in a century, and is considered safe for the foreseeable future.

• •No plan exists for what would follow Davey, and the ambitious MPs elected in 2024 lack experience.
• •Daisy Cooper, his deputy leader and Treasury spokesperson, would be a leading contender if he were ousted, but some MPs view her as equally cautious.
• •One MP said a lot of people are terrified of a Daisy leadership, and that this is politely phrased as a lack of a viable alternative - the main reason Ed is still in place.

Unhappiness beneath the surface

That does not mean the party is content. Frustrations that were already bubbling up before September's party conference have arguably become more acute since it. Some MPs worry Davey is being so careful not to alienate former Tory voters in the blue wall seats that any distinctively liberal message has been lost. One said the tax cut positioning jarred with activists, likening it to aping the Conservatives while they ape Reform.

On the pensions triple lock, MP Tom Gordon called Davey's argument that it must be saved to protect the pensions of people in their 40s downright insulting. The same MP who criticised the tax stance said Ed will be given time to make changes, but warned there are a lot of unhappy people in the party at the moment, not just MPs.

Not everyone sees a crisis. One MP said Davey was very clear in the meeting that he understands people's frustrations, and that he has enormous credit built up which will buy him time.

Others dismissed the complaints as performative: one described the complainers as a small minority who feel the world fails to recognise their staggering genius, while another said colleagues with small majorities plead for people to think before acting, because it undermines them. A senior party figure said some of this is usual mid-parliament blues that the 2024 intake have never experienced, and that there will be no implosion, just some soul searching.

Strategically, the party will pursue a version of Labour's Ming vase tactic, remaining sufficiently benign and unobjectionable to hoover up tactical votes and gain more MPs, and possibly supporting a Labour government conditional on proportional representation. One MP summarised the big plan as winning the seats to deliver PR and then being liberals, while noting it relies on many things going right. Davey, meanwhile, remains in place with no challenger in sight.