Benefits money to employment support

The former health secretary Alan Milburn, who is leading the government's review into young people who are not in education, employment or training, wants welfare spending redirected. In his view, the answer to the crisis is not more cash support but a system built around getting young people into work, with money moved out of the benefits bill and into employment programmes. He describes the current arrangements as tilted too far towards payments.

Milburn accepts that any reduction in the benefits bill can only come later. Over the medium term, he argues, spending can fall - but only if support and opportunities for young people are expanded first. He also rejects any suggestion that the young people affected lack a willingness to work: in his words, "This is not a workshy, snowflake generation, you know, who are making mental distress up". What young people want, he says, is a job, and the system is failing to deliver it.

A record 1 million young people Neet

The review Milburn leads has calculated the scale of the problem: a record 1 million 18- to 24-year-olds are now classed as Neet, meaning they are not in education, employment or training. He frames this as a problem of detachment from work and study, and the figures underline how deep that detachment runs.

• •60% of those counted as Neet have never had a job, according to Milburn's review
• •Milburn describes the situation as a "youth detachment" problem
• •He calls the Neet crisis a health crisis, with ill health driving higher rates of young people being out of work and education

He also points to an accountability gap inside government. In his assessment, no one in government is currently responsible either for preventing young people from becoming Neet or for helping them out of it once they are.

Mental health findings behind the review

The case for treating the crisis as a health issue is backed by a parallel review. Peter Fonagy, who chairs the government's independent review of mental health, ADHD and autism, has found that mental distress in England has risen significantly across all age groups since the 1990s, with the sharpest rise among under-18s. His review recommends that help should be available at the point of need rather than waiting for a formal diagnosis.

Fonagy has also issued a warning about where current trends lead. On the present trajectory, he says, not one in five but one in four young people will have diagnosable mental disorders - and the more common those disorders become, the greater the chance of young people ending up Neet. Like Milburn, he wants the system refocused: the current arrangements identify disability rather than potential, he says, and need to address what people can actually do.

What the review is expected to recommend

The review is likely to set out an integrated model that joins up employment, health and benefits support for young people. According to the proposals described, young people with health needs would receive a prompt needs assessment, a personalised health plan and a wider "participation plan" setting out their route into work or education.

• •The starting point for most young people with autism, ADHD, anxiety or depression should be work, in Milburn's view - the question should be what they could do, not what they cannot
• •Milburn says there must also be an obligation on young people to take up the opportunities offered to them
• •He hopes to introduce a maximum waiting time for mental health services, particularly for young people

The cost of this transformation is expected to be significant. Sources believe it would run to hundreds of millions of pounds in investment; neither Milburn nor Fonagy would comment on that funding level, but both stressed the need for upfront investment.

Budget context and next step

Milburn's intervention lands ahead of chancellor John Healey's first budget, where the chancellor must show how he will close a multibillion-pound gap in the public finances without borrowing more. Cost of living measures are expected to feature, funded in part by a new levy on banks, alongside a fresh energy support package.

At last month's Labour conference, Healey announced a £100m "local apprenticeship service", which he described as "a downpayment on Alan Milburn's work".

Milburn's final report has been delayed by ministers until after the budget.