A heavy week for AI stocks

The next few days concentrate the questions investors have been asking about the AI trade. Nvidia is scheduled to present its third-quarter results on November 17, the first major test of demand and guidance since the company entered its most serious governance crisis since its founding in 1993.

A day later, Anthropic is scheduled to price its initial public offering via New York's Nasdaq on November 18 and hopes to raise shares amounting to around $64.4 billion. Goldman Sachs is underwriting the transaction and projects the firm to achieve an annual revenue of roughly $685 billion by 2030.

The pricing, however, will land below earlier ambitions. Anthropic is targeting a valuation of between $1.26 trillion and $1.41 trillion - a hefty sum, albeit down on the more than $2 trillion the company had previously hoped for.

What the Nvidia share price is telling investors

The stock's slide frames both events. Nvidia shares have lost 13 percent of their value since Monday and are down more than 26 percent over the past month, a decline that matters far beyond one ticker.

• •Nvidia typically accounts for 6 to 7 percent of the value of the S&P 500, and the semiconductor group is worth about $4.2 trillion.
• •The company is an essential partner to Microsoft, Amazon, Google, OpenAI and other businesses developing powerful AI models, so its results double as a reading on the whole sector.
• •Anthropic's IPO has seven cornerstone investors whose rolodex boasts names including Alphabet, Nvidia and Microsoft.

With that much weight in the index, movements in the Nvidia share price are a proxy for AI stock market volatility more broadly - and next week's numbers will either steady or deepen the selloff.

A leadership gap at the top of the AI trade

The company enters the results under new leadership. Nvidia has appointed longtime Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress as interim CEO while a permanent successor is sought, a change that comes as the sector weighs what it means to lose its most prominent figure.

Investors are divided on the significance. Leïla Mörch, tech investor and founder of advisory firm Shael, put it bluntly:

Mörch said the industry is now realising and unveiling some weaknesses - perhaps over-personalisation and a lack of decentralisation of power - prompting players to reconsider succession plans. She also cited the UK government agency AI Security Institute, which she explained is one of - if not the only - government entities actively auditing AI models before public release, as a model for oversight.

Money still flowing into AI

Against the falling share price stands continued spending. Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta continue to commit hundreds of billions of dollars to AI infrastructure, the demand that underpins Nvidia's results.

• •Nvidia itself remains an active investor: just last month it put money into French healthtech firm Doctolib.

Attention now turns to November 17, when Nvidia presents its third-quarter results, and November 18, when Anthropic prices its IPO on Nasdaq.